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Host Katherine Lanpher talks with TIME business and economics reporters to sort through the headlines, forecasts, news and numbers that will help you weather these challenging times.

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Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

News about the Curious Capitalist

This just went out on Businesswire. For those who don't believe in clicking through, it says I've got a new job, editorial director of the Harvard Business Review Group. I start Jan. 25, and I'll still be at TIME and writing this blog through Jan. 22. (I'm pretty sure the blogging over the next month will be a lot better than it has been for the past month, because I now no longer have a big secret I can't write about.) I'll keep writing occasional columns for TIME even after that, but my Internet home will be up north at hbr.org. My TIME colleagues are likely to hatch plans soon to replace or expand upon this here blog—I'll keep you posted if they tell me anything

Anyway, back to work. Or back to Christmas shopping.

          

This was the sidewalk in front of the Citibank at 96th and Broadway and New York a little after noon on Sunday. The reason I took a picture of it was because, while most of the sidewalks along Broadway were already salted and shoveled and ready for walking after the big Saturday night snowfall, the sidewalks in front of bank branches conspicuously were not. It wasn't just Citi—Bank of America and Chase were offenders as well. I get that the banks aren't open on Sunday, but you think they'd be able to hire somebody to shovel.

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Weekend video: Joseph, better you than me

It's last year's Christmas song from the Killers!

I think this is my favorite of the Killers' annual seasonal tunes (of which there are now four). "Don't Shoot Me Santa" is pretty brilliant, and this year's "¡Happy Birthday, Guadalupe!" is growing on me. But they don't have Elton John and Neil Tennant.

          

Explaining the Fed

So I was out for the past couple of days and missed the big news about Ben Bernanke being named TIME's Person of the Year. Then again, I had already used my keen deductive abilities to figure out that Bernanke was going to be named TIME's Person of the Year. I'd known for a while that my colleague Michael Grunwald was working on a Bernanke profile, and when it kept not showing up in the magazine, that kind of tipped me off. Also, Katherine Lanpher (host of the weekly TIME Financial Toolkit podcast that's always available on the upper left side of this blog's homepage and can be subscribed to here) and I were asked to put together a video explaining how the Fed works. That seemed like a pretty clear sign. Anyway, here's the video:

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A tale of many inflations

New numbers out today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show consumer prices unchanged from last month. At least that's the case for the core measure of inflation, which strips out food and energy prices since they're so volatile. If you add those in, which you might want to do if you are thinking about this from the viewpoint of an actual consumer, then inflation was up a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in November, as compared to October, and up 1.8% over the past twelve months.

But whether or not you're feeling those increases has a lot to do with how you spend money. For some Americans, prices actually aren't going up that much at all.

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Bloomberg is reporting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's regulator is renegotiating the terms of the housing agencies' financial rescue with the Treasury Department. According to unnamed people "familiar with the talks," this renegotiation could include increasing the size of the agencies' $400 billion lifeline—so far, Fannie Mae has tapped $60.9 billion and Freddie Mac $50.7 billion—and possibly cutting the dividends the agencies pay to Treasury on the borrowed money.

Things at Fannie and Freddie are still a mess, it seems. That makes me wonder why in some 1,300 pages of thoughts on how to reform the financial sector last week, the U.S. House of Representatives didn't mention Fannie or Freddie once.

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New column: The real jobless rate

I've got a column online and in the issue of TIME with the Year in Pictures on the cover. It's about measuring unemployment. In it I cite a Bureau of Labor Statistics study that found that what people said about their interest in getting a job wasn't all that predictive of whether they'd actually get one down the road. It's here if you want to read it. Also, my column is the spiritual descendant of a column David Leonhardt wrote in 2008, so you might want to read that. And finally, while my column is about how the actual state of the job market is considerably more grim than the headline unemployment rate indicates, I really do think there's a chance we've hit bottom. If you want to read Dan Gross making an even stronger case for optimism on that front than I would, be my guest.

          

Paul Samuelson, 1915-2009

The great MIT economist Paul Samuelson died today, at age 94. The NYT, in its obituary, calls him "the foremost academic economist of the 20th century," which sounds about right. Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis, a reworking of his doctoral dissertation that was first published in 1947, transformed graduate education in economics (by ending what he called "the laborious literary working over of essentially simple mathematical concepts," and replacing this "peculiarly depraved" practice with hardcore math). And his 1948 textbook Economics—a brilliant literary reworking of economic ideas for a less sophisticated audience—dominated undergraduate education in the subject for decades. He also had his hand in many of the great economic advances of his day, including one that I spent way too much of the past decade immersed in, the efficient market hypothesis.

Yet he isn't nearly as well known to the rest of the world as his fellow economists Milton Friedman or John Maynard Keynes. This isn't because Samuelson was hiding out in the ivory tower. He wrote a textbook that introduced generations of American college students to economics. He wrote a regular column for Newsweek for years (and recruited Friedman to write for the magazine too). He was always accessible to reporters and ready to spell out economic concepts in clear language.

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Weekend video: Happy, joyous Hanukkah

I'm not going to show the video of the new Orrin Hatch Hanukkah song, because that's just overexposed. Same goes for Adam Sandler, of course. Neil Diamond's cover of Adam Sandler less so, but I just dunno. Sarah Silverman's "Give the Jew Girl Toys" is inappropriate for a family blog. My favorite Hanukkah song is the Barenaked Ladies' "Hanukkah Blessings," but the only videos I can find of it are of the Rock Band version, some kid who can't really sing (although he seems nice enough), and a guy named Wilkie in an old folks home.

Which leaves me, perhaps just because I'm a goy and don't know enough good Hanukkah songs, with the Klezmatics singing some Woody Guthrie:

          

They passed it, they really passed it

The House of Representatives just voted 223-202 to approve the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009. The Senate still has to approve its own financial reform plan, and once that happens (if it happens), there will be all sorts wrangling and compromising and sneaky inserting of provisions that hardly anybody will understand until long after the bill becomes law.

Still, from the perspective of three or four months ago, when financial reform seemed dead in the water, this is a pretty big deal. The House bill would, among many other things, make it possible for the FDIC to take over and sell off or shut down systemically important financial institutions other than banks. This new authority would be financed with a $150 billion "systemic dissolution fund" that "large, interconnected financial companies" would have to contribute to. The bill would create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. It would bring regulation of over-the-counter derivatives. It would shut down the Office of Thrift Supervision. It would create a new oversight council in charge of monitoring systemic risk in the financial system.

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