Retail sales down. JPMorgan profits up. Wall Street pay up. Hmmmm
The headlines this morning were a catchy juxtaposition: "Retail sales drop on fall in autos." "JPMorgan profits surge six fold." Oh, and "Wall Street on track to award record pay."
The retail sales decline was actually a just a knock-on effect of the expiration of cash for clunkers. Retail sales excluding autos were up 0.5% on the month. But the basic message of the headlines—that the consumer economy is still struggling while Wall Street (or at least parts of it) thrive—is not too far off.
The split is apparent in JPMorgan Chase's third quarter earnings release. The big profit centers were investment banking at $1.9 billion in net income and the corporate investment portfolio at $1.3 billion. Retail banking pretty much broke even, and credit cards lost $700 million. CEO Jamie Dimon said he didn't expect those consumer segments to look much better next year—only after 2010 is he hoping for much improvement.
Will Americans be willing to wait until 2011? One really big wild card is the possible political response. If the consumer economy keeps struggling and JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs keep reporting big profits, the anti-Wall Street backlash is just going to grow, grow, grow. I was struck yesterday by this post by my Facebook friend Francine Hardaway, a Phoenix-area entrepreneur. It's a plug for Michael Moore's new Capitalism: A Love Story:
I am the first to agree that Michael Moore exaggerates. But in this movie, not so much. It is 100% true that Congress is owned by the financial institutions lock, stock and barrel. I don't care which party you belong to -- I'm an independent -- you should be outraged by this movie if you are young, or have children, or work, or build businesses. Because America has been, and continues to be, ruined for the rest of us by about a hundred people on "Wall Street" who have all the money and therefore run the government and your life. It's everything from credit card fees to subprime mortgages, to Ponzi schemes, to health insurance reform.
This is a businessperson writing. And tens of millions—maybe hundreds of millions—of other Americans must also feel like this. Surely some politician is going to find a way to channel this anger (yes, Glenn Beck is channeling some of it, but he aims it more at Washington than at Wall Street). And when that happens, Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein may want to duck.
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It seems to me that Wall Street has become more and more at odds with America as a whole. Heads they win, tails we lose?
Here's my prediction: Unless Wall Street can clearly and directly demonstrate how it benefits mainstream America, it will be under direct government control in 50 years.
Wall Street's position is that it has reduced risk and improved financial prospects for the average American. Clearly the former has been proven wrong, and the latter flies in the face of the lack of real income growth for the vast majority.
I don't see such a demonstration happening. Wall Street simply is not that sophisticated.
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2
Main Street, the silent majority will only accept this for so long.
$22 Billion for Goldman employees this year, made on the back of a broken financial system tells me something is wrong.
If I remember correctly, the last severe recessions, Banks and big Oil made record profits, while people struggled to pay these maggots.
This world is more than Wall Street. Maybe it needs a little forced downsizing?
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3
And this would be just one explanation of why a totally free market economy will never work. Because there is always the few that will screw over the many in any way they possibly can. I'm not advocating for communism, I'm advocating for laws to stop this from going to extremes.
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"This is a businessperson writing. And tens of millions—maybe hundreds of millions—of other Americans must also feel like this."
I wish they did. Unfortunately, dreams of past glories are the opiate of the people.
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5
"This is a businessperson writing."
Well, no duh. What I have been trying to explain to you for over a year is that the senior management layer in the Fortune 500 (just below the executive, we give ourself raises crowd) is almost universally aware that something is seriously broken.
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By the way, are these gavorite links really your choices? Greg Mankiw over Krugman?
Sad.
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6.1
I don't think Krugman had a blog yet when I put that list together. Time for an update!
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[...] this is a timely reminder that the story line I offered up yesterday after JPMorgan reported big earnings—that of Wall Street vs. the rest of us—isn't the only [...]
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[...] these news items suggest a “catchy juxtaposition,” Justin Fox writes at Time’s Curious Capitalist [...]
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[...] Related Topics: marketingmiscellany, Häagen-Dazs, ice cream With the economy still somewhat slow, companies probably don't want to be going hog-wild on the R&D spending. Yet at the same time, [...]
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