Why is it news that Ben Bernanke thinks the recession is over?
Example #389 of why I'm never going to make it in the news business: Yesterday afternoon, TIME.com's business editor, John Curran, recommended that I take a look at Ben Bernanke's speech at the Brookings Institution. I glanced at the text, saw that it was an exact repeat of the speech he'd given at Jackson Hole in August, and thought, naaaaah. A couple hours later I read online that in the Q&A after the speech Bernanke had said the recession was "very likely" over. Which is what everybody and his brother—including, I thought, Bernanke—has been saying for weeks. No news there, either, I figured.
So I when I picked up my NYT this morning I was a little surprised to see Bernanke's words highlighted on the front page (although at least the actual story was relegated to the front of the business section). Then I'm walking Curious Capitalist Jr. to school and I see the FT at a newsstand. The lead story: "Recession likely over in US, says Bernanke." When I got to work I checked the WaPo and WSJ. Front page of the WaPo: "Recovery Underway, Bernanke Suggests." Top of the "What's News" box in the WSJ (with the actual story at the top of A2): "Bernanke: Recession 'Likely Over.'"
Why on earth would all these newspapers, struggling to survive in straitened times, devote valuable space and reporting time to this non-news? It certainly can't be because of Ben "the impact ... of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained" Bernanke's brilliant record as an economic forecaster. Bernanke's words also didn't mark any sort of major change in his outlook. If Peter Schiff announced that he thought happy days were here again, now that would be news. Bernanke's Fed, meanwhile, has been giving pretty clear signals over the past couple of months that it thinks the recession is ending but the recovery will be weak. Which is exactly what Bernanke said yesterday. So again, why all the coverage? I can think of three main reasons.
1) Bernanke is a powerful guy, and his opinions about the economic future, whether well-founded or not, matter. This is why Wall Street economists parse every utterance from the Fed—because they're trying to get advance hints about future policy changes. Bernanke has actually tried to discourage such Kremlinology by being pretty straightforward about the Fed's plans. But there are still lots of people trying to guess at his intentions.
2) We remain a society governed by symbols and rituals. I looked through Bernanke's recent utterances and this does in fact appear to be the first time he has been so bold to say outright that the recession is probably over. When the Great Shaman of the economy announces that the Great Recession is over, tradition dictates that we must pay him heed. Or something like that.
3) Even in this new media age, when newspapers are supposed to devote themselves to endeavors of higher value than stenography of the utterances of some public official, it's really tempting and easy just to go with stenography. Especially if you can be pretty sure that all your rivals will be doing it too. You wouldn't want to look out of it by ignoring the biggest "news" of the day, would you?
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1
Or perhaps... desperate attempts at sympathetic magic?
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I thought I had read this same basic story several times recently and was a little perplexed why it was news.... I think I like your third possible explanation.
Oh, and don't forget your own media outlet; TIME.com's front page currently has a poll on whether we agree with Mr. Bernanke or not.
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2.1
Ah, but that's a POLL. Which is, like, interactive and forward-looking and stuff.
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2.2
Oh, ok, gotcha. I think between that and your blog being featured right now, Time is doing a good job of covering it's bases. You'll figure out this news business soon enough!
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[...] is “very likely over.” Now the hard work begins. (Calculated Risk, Market Talk, Curious Capitalist, The Globe and [...]
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I'm going to go ahead and side with our expert here Mr. Bernanke and go ahead and declare the recession over. If it's not true and we're still in recession, then it might help us out of it by trying to raise public sentiment. It really seems to be a win-win. So party it up America and get out there to spend some money, the recession is finally over and there's nothing but blue skies and sunshine ahead. Have Mr. Bernanke and I ever lied to you before?
Check out my blog on Bernanke's "assertion" at ..... http://www.thedebtgazette.com/2009/09/bernanke-recession-over/
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[...] Time’s Curious Capitalist blogger Justin Fox is perplexed about all the media attention this subject has generated, especially because Bernanke’s [...]
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It's a combination of the three and then some. Newspapers should be reading each other's articles when real journalism is involved. Take this piece, for example: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession-anchored-just-east-Singapore.html
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7
Indeed. Poor Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI, who's been pounding the table and shouting from the rooftop for months now, gets little credit for his prescient call!
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8
Bernanke repeated his speech that could apparently be obsolete, albeit a month old. Of course, it is no news – no alarm.
Everyone who is on “WHO is WHO” in the financial world would keep uttering something that might well be of little consequences. But the news media like it, for it would fill up their pages everyday.
Well, can one still trust what all the so-called gurus advocate nowadays?
(btt1943) -
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[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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13
[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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14
[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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15
[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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16
[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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17
[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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18
[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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[...] [...]
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[...] Americans cannot get any truth out of their government about anything, the economy included. Americans are being driven into the ground economically, with one million school children now homeless, while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announces that the recession is over. [...]
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