But the economists DIDN'T get everything wrong
Paul Krugman has an epic, and really great, dissection of the state of economics in Sunday's New York Times Magazine—headlined "How Did Economists Get It So Wrong"—that has already gone up online (thanks to Daniel Lippmann for letting me know about it). For those who only know Krugman from his NYT columns, it's a wonderful glimpse of the expansive, unpredictable essayist whom my former boss Rob Norton (who disagreed with Krugman at least 60% of the time) called the best economics writer since Keynes. For me it's a little frustrating, since large swaths of the article parallel the story told in my book, which Krugman said was a "must-read" in the NYT Book Review a few weeks back, but it never actually mentions my book. I'm going to assume that Krugman did mention my book in the draft he turned in, but some editor at the NYT removed it for reasons of narrative flow. And considering that I make such decisions in my column all the time (in fact, I did it in this week's column; I'll explain later), I really can't complain too much.
Beyond that, the one big issue I have with the piece is that, while economists certainly got lots of things wrong before the crisis (as did almost all of us), many members of the profession have acquitted themselves pretty well since things turned really ugly last year. Krugman goes on and on about the "freshwater" economists (at the Universities of Chicago, Rochester and Minnesota) and their crazy ideas about perfect markets. But what's telling is that the hardcore freshwaterites have had almost no impact on economic policy for the past year—neither in the Bush months or the Obama ones. Sure, Nobelist Ed Prescott, a former freshwater economist who now teaches in Phoenix and thus should probably be described as a no-water economist, made the statement that:
"I don't know why Obama said all economists agree on [the need for a stimulus bill]," Prescott said. "They don't. If you go down to the third-tier schools, yes, but they're not the people advancing the science."
Unless you believe that pretty much anyplace other than Arizona State University is a third-tier school, this is patently untrue, evidence of the extreme isolation of the remaining true believers in rational expectations and real business cycles and other such elegant but profoundly unhelpful macroeconomic theories developed since the 1960s. Even some of the true believers seem far more aware than Prescott that the past year's events have challenged their theories—as the University of Chicago's Robert Lucas told me last fall, "everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole." Among economists with actual influence on policy over the past year—Philip Swagel in the Paulson Treasury, Larry Summers and Christina Romer and Austan Goolsbee and etc. in the current White House—there's been a great willingness to experiment and accept that markets don't always deliver optimal results. The result: an economic recovery that seems to be gaining strength. So don't totally count the economists out.
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Ummm, as PK would say, I thought his article was about what got us into the recession, not how we best get out.
So the opinion-offerings of the past year are quite tangential to his point that we let our banking system shift from a carefully-regulated, risk-averse set of institutions into the incentives to maximize profit with no concern for regulation, nor the certainty spelled out by types like Diamond & Dybvig that borrowing short and lending long ALWAYS produces a banking/currency crisis in the absence of government backstops.
Or maybe, Alan Greenspan is a banker, not an economist? Certainly, he was listening to a lot of people before he made his maddeningly obtuse mumblings. They must have not been economists, either, or maybe he was just in an echo chamber?
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True, but what are Diamond and Dybvig? Economists!
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"Unless you believe that pretty much anyplace other than Arizona State University is a third-tier school, this is patently untrue, evidence of the extreme isolation of the remaining true believers in rational expectations and real business cycles and other such elegant but profoundly unhelpful macroeconomic theories developed since the 1960s."
The real story is how some economists are still getting it wrong; and how a significant part of the Congress is still clinging to the profoundly unhelpful macroeconomic theories and calling for a repeal of the stimulus package.
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I love how Krugman failed to mention in the article the school of economics that DID predict this, Austrian Economics.
I just graduated from The University of Florida with a degree in Agricultural Economics, and I can tell you the reason why most economist are wrong .... the people teaching economist are more like religious zealots than scientist, and I'm not talking about ideology.
I'm 30, so I actually worked in the business world before going to college .... and i dont suggest it for anyone. It's like sending an atheist to a seminary school. They are still teaching the same out-dated thinking and models ..... people are not rational, there is no such thing as a "free" market, and no variable is insignificant. Everything that they teach is contradicted in the real world, but they continue to teach it as a science.
They should be teaching behavioral economics, Game Theory, and Austrian Economics.... these disciplines are based in real world observations.
If the price of anything doubles in over 4 years, oil or housing, its not sustainable
If you structure the market so you that companies can make a profit off people and pass the risk off to other, a lot of companies are going to do that
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Read your book yesterday & Krugman NYT piece today: the "resemblance" is actionable!
Book is great! I'm economist (a quant, but long troubled by academy's literal acceptance of simplistic "rational expectations" models) & found the story accurate & insightful--rare for journalists discussing subtleties of economics....
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[...] Krugman article: “How did economists get it so wrong?” (NYTimes also Clusterstock, Curious Capitalist, Infectious Greed, Crossing Wall [...]
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Summers' take really counts as a "great willingness to experiment"?? Hmmm...
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[...] at TIME’s Curious Capitalist, says he’s heard this refrain before, too. In fact, he wrote it, or something basically just like it.) But Krugman isn’t just interesting in slinging mud. [...]
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I think government should focus on the long term policy issue rather than short term stimulus policy. Now economy is back to normal with increasing economic growth, strong investor from rising stock prices, commodities prices and the strong expectation on rising price from ISM-price paid index. This means we are normal and maybe more than normal because ISM-Price paid index shows the very high inflation. Meaning that all stimulus policy both fiscal and monetary policies will affect only price now from the current expectation. Surely, we will have the high inflation and this will kill economy and create the instability in the economy. We face a lot of bubbles and crashes and governments are prone to growth policy rather than long-term policy from stability and now we have Tech bubbles, Subprime bubbles and we have only rising unemployment with higher cost of living. We cheat the unemployment rate that we change methodology; so we have 9.7% rather than 16% from we used to have 3%. How can we call this is the right policy? I think if all policy makers do not change their views to focus long term problems such as low saving rate, over-consumption, over-debts, rising aging people, healthcare problems, uncontrollable budget debts and deficit. We will have only high unemployment with high cost of living at the end and this is from the wrong policy from short-term growth rather long-term growth with stability.
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[...] on whether the pretty good response of policy-oriented economists in the crisis undercuts the thesis — I don’t think so. I mean, yes, my colleagues are [...]
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[...] En mi opinión hay cosas que exagera algunas cosas- por ejemplo, no creo que sea cierto que la literatura económica hubiera olvidado la “economía de la catástrofe”, como la literatura sobre crisis monetarias del que él mismo es el autor más importante muestra y que se ha desarrollado especialmente a lo largo de la década de los noventa. Algo similar ocurre con las nuevas finanzas institucionales (Bernanke, Gertler, Stiglitz, etc…). Esto, por supuesto, es un problema de apreciación y de lo que uno decide considerar como “ortodoxo”. Estoy totalmente de acuerdo con el comentario de Justin Fox. [...]
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It's 40 years after the Moon landing and Krugman got his PhD in 1977. What has he said about the planned obsolescence of automobiles? How much have Americans lost on the depreciation of crapmobiles every year since 1969?
Our so called economic system depends on economists that can't do algebra. Double-entry accounting is 700 years old. How hard can it be with today's computers? When have our economists suggested that it be mandatory in the schools?
NO! We need to keep the consumers $tupid. That would screw up our game theory.
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Do yourself a favor.
Watch "Why The Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One" by one of the only truly competent economists in the U.S.... Peter Schiff.
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Krugman acknowledges you in his blog (still should have mentioned you in the article though):
The Conscience of a LIberal -
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[...] on whether the pretty good response of policy-oriented economists in the crisis undercuts the thesis — I don't think so. I mean, yes, my colleagues are smart [...]
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There are several distinct professions that share common this common moniker.
1. The economists themselves (e.g. D.Kahneman).
2. Strange folk that tries to apply economic methods to study capital markets.
3. Capital market voodooists.
4. Morons like Krugman who do not understand even the basics (if we would not work we will all die from hunger). BTW, it is very indicative that he sees himself best fit to sit in judgement. -
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[...] Reaction has been coming in from across the blogosphere, check out responses from Brad DeLong, Justin Fox, Scott Sumner, James Kwak, Arnold Kling, Andrew Samwick, Noam Scheiber, David Warsh, Don Marron, [...]
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Kudos on the Myth of the Rational Market! I wrote to John Mauldin on friday after he recommended the PK article and commented that there was surely more than inspiration from your book in the New York Times piece. A fellow economist sent me a letter from Brad DeLong from a few years back where PK credited Larry Summers for an idea which stemmed from a co-written article by Summers and DeLong. This behaviour is not healthy and more than nettlesome coming from a respected academic. Anyway, perhaps a little bit of controversy with PK may lead to more new readers of your book!
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[...] I've gotten a few messages from friends and strangers this week telling me that they think I should have been harder on Paul Krugman for not mentioning my book in his big NYT Mag essay on the "How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?" [...]
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[...] the original post: Add Your Comment: Share and [...]
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Thanks you very good; thanks for add to your informations;
http://www.kontoranabayi.com/
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