Dow 9,000! Which means we're one-fourth of the way to 36,000!
An editor (I assume he'd prefer to remain nameless) poked his head into my office a little while ago to inform to me that the Dow Jones Industrials average had passed 9,000 today. So I did what every modern journalist does would do in such a situation and Googled "9,000 dow." That led me to a blog post by Paul Krugman, headlined "Dow 9000!" He wrote it Oct. 9, 2008.
Remember October 2008? That was back when the financial world was still falling apart. Fixed-income markets were still completely frozen (which was the point of Krugman's post). The bank bailout bill had been signed into law, but nobody knew yet if it was going to work. Anybody with half a lick of sense could see we were headed into a deep, deep recession. In a Fortune article I wrote dated Oct. 13, I quote UC Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen saying:
I doubt that we'll be able to avoid double-digit unemployment, but I'm still confident we can avoid 24% unemployment like in 1933.
So all we've done is gotten back to where we were in those gloomy days. In inflation-adjusted terms, we're at about the level that prevailed before Alan Greenspan made his "irrational exuberance" speech in December 1996.
None of this tells us anything about where the Dow is headed, of course. It's just an indication of how bad things have been, for how long. And former Merrill Lynch North America economist David Rosenberg, now back home in Canada at the firm Gluskin Sheff, figures we have some more badness ahead of us:
[T]he S&P 500 surged 15% in the second quarter and what we did was go back in the history books to see what happens to the economy the very next quarter typically after such a big bounce and the answer is ... just over 3% real GDP growth. ... Now, for the market to build on such a rapid advance in the current quarter, history again suggests that we would need to see 5½% real GDP growth, which we give near-zero odds of occurring. Hence our call for a sputtering stock market through year-end. Too much growth — and hope — is priced in at this point.
I don't know if that logic entirely holds. The big bounceback could simply reflect a correction of the extreme, the-world-is-about-to-end pessimism that prevailed in the early part of this year, not a bet that robust growth is in the offing. But I still have this feeling that Rosenberg's prediction will turn out to be right.
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1
Well we still have all that stimulus money to kick in.
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2
The article: Ben "Systemic Risk" Bernanke proves that Bernanke knowingly maintained a strict monetary policy long after he knew of the sub prime problem as he knew it would cause of the "Depression".
It shows that he probably engineered it on purpose!
If you want to sleep tonight, Don't Read It!
"In contradiction to the prevalent view of the time, that money and monetary policy played at most a purely passive role in the Depression, Friedman and Schwartz argued that "the [economic] contraction is in fact a tragic testimonial to the importance of monetary forces" (Friedman and Schwartz, 1963, p. 300).
.....The slowdown in economic activity, together with high interest rates, was in all likelihood the most important source of the stock market crash that followed in October.
In other words, the market crash, rather than being the cause of the Depression, as popular legend has it, was in fact largely the result of an economic slowdown and the inappropriate monetary policies that preceded it.
Of course, the stock market crash only worsened the economic situation, hurting consumer and business confidence and contributing to a still deeper downturn in 1930."
Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Money, Gold, and the Great Depression.
At the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Economic Policy, Washington and Lee University,
Lexington, Virginia.
March 2nd, 2004You can read also: Preparing for the Crash, The Age of Turbulence Update: 22/07/09., which tries to accomplish Greenspan Mission Impossible:
"Much as we might wish otherwise, policy-makers cannot reliably anticipate financial or economic shocks or the consequences of economic imbalances. Financial crises are characterised by discontinuous breaks in market pricing the timing of which by definition must be unanticipated - if people see them coming, then the markets arbitrage them away.
.....
That is mission impossible. Indeed, the international financial community has made numerous efforts in recent years to establish such oversight, but none prevented or ameliorated the crisis that began last summer. Much as we might wish otherwise, policy makers cannot reliably anticipate financial or economic shocks or the consequences of economic imbalances. Financial crises are characterised by discontinuous breaks in market pricing the timing of which by definition must be unanticipated - if people see them coming, then the markets arbitrage them away."
Alan Greenspan
The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World [Economic Order?].Plea for a New World Economic Order. explains the nature and causes of economic depressions and proposes a plausible alternative solution.
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I think we're going to see a lot of volatility.
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4
As Dow steadily moves above 9000, some people say the recession is over. But is it?
By which benchmark? By Wall Street's recent surge, housing market's improvement, consumers' regain of confidence or what?
What about the economic shrinkage as predicted for the year 2009? How are other nations, notably the EU, doing? Would their poor performance not affecting the US?
Would the gloomy unemployment rate not be a good indicator? In which case, has the recession bottomed? Just wait till the next report on the jobless figure in early August.
(btt1943)
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