Comments on: The payroll employment numbers get all ugly again http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/ Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business Sat, 05 Dec 2009 05:18:44 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: gatesvp http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14209 gatesvp Mon, 06 Jul 2009 08:04:54 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14209 I've posted this elsewhere, but if you want a sign that the US is coming out of the "recession", please watch the trade numbers. Unless the US can start paying off debt, it's not much of a "recovery". I really like <a href="http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1887728,00.html" rel="nofollow">Kurt Anderson's take</a> on the "End of Excess". He cuts through a lot of the BS. Don't get me wrong Justin, I really do appreciate the charts. This perspective on data is very valuable. What's not so valuable is the illusion that these numbers have anywhere to go but down a little further. Until wee come up with the "great new engine" of economic growth, we're going to watch oodles of job shuffling and economic woes. So if we want "green shoots", we have to look for the growth. We have to find the stuff that we can export, the stuff than can employ all of the laid-off GM workers, the stuff that can employ the new grads. Right now we're still just flailing. I've posted this elsewhere, but if you want a sign that the US is coming out of the "recession", please watch the trade numbers. Unless the US can start paying off debt, it's not much of a "recovery".

I really like Kurt Anderson's take on the "End of Excess". He cuts through a lot of the BS.

Don't get me wrong Justin, I really do appreciate the charts. This perspective on data is very valuable. What's not so valuable is the illusion that these numbers have anywhere to go but down a little further. Until wee come up with the "great new engine" of economic growth, we're going to watch oodles of job shuffling and economic woes.

So if we want "green shoots", we have to look for the growth. We have to find the stuff that we can export, the stuff than can employ all of the laid-off GM workers, the stuff that can employ the new grads. Right now we're still just flailing.

]]> By: vietblogviet http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14194 vietblogviet Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:19:42 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14194 So sorry as you can see my blog, just set up and need your reviews at http://blogviet.info So sorry as you can see my blog, just set up and need your reviews at http://blogviet.info

]]> By: vietblogviet http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14193 vietblogviet Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:17:28 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14193 great one, thanks for sharing. T great one, thanks for sharing. T

]]> By: tanboontee http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14190 tanboontee Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:57:10 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14190 The report says 467,000 jobs lost in June. I take it to mean 467 thousand people were retrenched in the month. Presumably the number does not include the fresh job-seekers. Otherwise, it can add another few hundred thousands. As it is, the unemployment rate stands at 9.5%, pushing nearer to double digits. Translating into the actual number of jobless, this comes to some 15 millions, more if the college and school leavers who enter the job market first time were to be considered. The chart (minus the Great Depression) speaks volume about the dire situation of the current recession. The Great Depression took more than a decade to recover, and that was not without the “blessings” of World War II when deadly battles were fought far away from the US homeland, stimulating war and other industries into mass production. I am not drawing any parallel here. But just don’t tell me we need another “great WAR” to END this “great RECESSION”. BETTER NOT. (Tan Boon Tee, btt1943@yahoo.com) The report says 467,000 jobs lost in June. I take it to mean 467 thousand people were retrenched in the month. Presumably the number does not include the fresh job-seekers. Otherwise, it can add another few hundred thousands.

As it is, the unemployment rate stands at 9.5%, pushing nearer to double digits. Translating into the actual number of jobless, this comes to some 15 millions, more if the college and school leavers who enter the job market first time were to be considered.

The chart (minus the Great Depression) speaks volume about the dire situation of the current recession. The Great Depression took more than a decade to recover, and that was not without the “blessings” of World War II when deadly battles were fought far away from the US homeland, stimulating war and other industries into mass production.

I am not drawing any parallel here. But just don't tell me we need another “great WAR” to END this “great RECESSION”. BETTER NOT.
(Tan Boon Tee, btt1943@yahoo.com)

]]> By: jjworleyeoe http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14189 jjworleyeoe Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:57:06 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14189 I'm no economist, but in my opinion, we've arrived at the point where modern economic models are of little use. We're dealing in the trillions of dollars. As such, it will take much more than stimulus packages to right this ship. Specifically, Congress must put China's export growth and corporations engaged in nearly unfettered outsourcing on notice. Without these types of structural changes, any recovery will be nothing more than a temporary band-aid. Moreover, we can all point the finger at subprime mortgages and non-existent lending standards as the spark, but the fuel source is a job market that does not correlate with real middle class wage growth. Finally, we've now got the President and Congress wanting to pass what are in effect taxes in the form of near universal healthcare and cap-and-trade. While these measures may be needed, they will only hold back job growth, because the green economy will take many years to even make a dent in how America buys and sells goods and services in a much more environmentally friendly manner. I'm no economist, but in my opinion, we've arrived at the point where modern economic models are of little use. We're dealing in the trillions of dollars. As such, it will take much more than stimulus packages to right this ship. Specifically, Congress must put China's export growth and corporations engaged in nearly unfettered outsourcing on notice. Without these types of structural changes, any recovery will be nothing more than a temporary band-aid. Moreover, we can all point the finger at subprime mortgages and non-existent lending standards as the spark, but the fuel source is a job market that does not correlate with real middle class wage growth. Finally, we've now got the President and Congress wanting to pass what are in effect taxes in the form of near universal healthcare and cap-and-trade. While these measures may be needed, they will only hold back job growth, because the green economy will take many years to even make a dent in how America buys and sells goods and services in a much more environmentally friendly manner.

]]> By: tc125231 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14188 tc125231 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:24:09 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14188 Mr. Fox, I know you don't like Krugman, but perusing the real hours worked graph he has repeatedly posted on his blog would have made this prediction inevitable. The reduction in hours worked is a straight, steep, line down, It never showed any of this "green shoots" nonsense. Mr. Fox, I know you don't like Krugman, but perusing the real hours worked graph he has repeatedly posted on his blog would have made this prediction inevitable.

The reduction in hours worked is a straight, steep, line down, It never showed any of this "green shoots" nonsense.

]]> By: Ffred http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14187 Ffred Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:25:58 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14187 A bit off-topic, but here's a nice essay on wage stagnation, debt, and bank profits: http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/07/200972355351692.html A bit off-topic, but here's a nice essay on wage stagnation, debt, and bank profits:

http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/07/200972355351692.html

]]> By: junkndump http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14186 junkndump Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:58:51 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14186 I look forward to seeing your depression comparison employment charts. FYI – ECRI does release their Weekly Leading Index publicly, perhaps with some lag. I see Reuters stories regularly, here is today's: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1474/ And they have the index data available for download here: http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/ If the leading index is right, employment numbers should resume their recovery (less bad) soon. I look forward to seeing your depression comparison employment charts.

FYI – ECRI does release their Weekly Leading Index publicly, perhaps with some lag.

I see Reuters stories regularly, here is today's: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1474/

And they have the index data available for download here: http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/

If the leading index is right, employment numbers should resume their recovery (less bad) soon.

]]> By: kathy http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14185 kathy Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:48:34 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14185 This is stupidly simplistic, but I haven't been able to see how the stimulus is going to work when states have decided to reduce their own spending while the feds are increasing theirs. No increased spending, just reshuffling the deck chairs. At least in Vermont the legislature overrode the governor's veto of the budget, but then the governor went right ahead with his planned (though now banned) layoffs. This is stupidly simplistic, but I haven't been able to see how the stimulus is going to work when states have decided to reduce their own spending while the feds are increasing theirs. No increased spending, just reshuffling the deck chairs. At least in Vermont the legislature overrode the governor's veto of the budget, but then the governor went right ahead with his planned (though now banned) layoffs.

]]> By: Up: Unemployment, Wall Street Bonuses - The Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/07/02/the-payroll-employment-numbers-get-all-ugly-again/comment-page-1/#comment-14184 Up: Unemployment, Wall Street Bonuses - The Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:03:49 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=5982#comment-14184 [...] Time, Justin Fox quotes the “indispensable” Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics, who says: “In short, labor market is [...] [...] Time, Justin Fox quotes the “indispensable” Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics, who says: “In short, labor market is [...]

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