Job losses in the Great Recession vs. in the Great Depression
Okay, now I remember why I don't do this every month. It took me a while:
The measure of job losses in this chart is an attempt to adjust for the fact that the only good payroll employment numbers we have are for non-farm jobs, and in the 1930s a much higher percentage of Americans were still working on the farm. To quote from an earlier post:
Sebastian Dartevelle, a scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory and an occasional reader of this blog, devised a simple way to correct that: He came up with rough estimates of the total number of people who could work in 1929 (those 14 and older) and in 2007 (those 16 and over), and divided the change in nonfarm employment in each downturn by the appropriate labor-force number.
This still isn't a perfect measure. In fact, it overstates the severity of job losses in the current recession vs. those in the depression (because it assumes that no farmworkers lost their jobs in the 1930s). But it's better than anything else I've been able to come up with. And if you choose as your start date not the month of peak employment, but the month when financial markets panicked (October 1929 and October 2008, which is handy because the data aren't seasonally adjusted and starting at the same time of year makes for more of an apples-to-apples comparison) the lines move alarmingly close together:

In the Great Depression, the job losses kept coming and coming, eventually peaking at more than 12% of the "labor-able" population in March 1933. So things would have to keep getting worse and worse for a couple more years for this downturn to be truly comparable. But the pace so far really isn't all that different.
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That graph gets more horrifying every time I see it AND every time you update it. Quality double whammy on that one.
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I wonder how much current economic thinking is influenced by the existence of the 24 hour news cycle. (i.e. - the stimulus bill was supposed to have started working by now/ is the story its now Obama's fault?, etc.) Big giant economic thingies take months and years to happen, but most of what's in the press and on TV makes it out to be 2-day attention span friendly. Which is a problem, because it's not 2-day friendly. -
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[...] by wang-banger [link] [0 [...]
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[...] Source [...]
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So, still think the half-hearted stimulus package is enough? Still buy all the blather from "economists of good reputation" about the stimulus being bad?
I have some swell property in Atlantis to sell you boys.
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The first graph can be misleading. The second one is more convincing.
If the extrapolation of the latter graph can be of any guidance, we are most probably already in the beginning of a second great depression. Except this time its gravity is more pronounced because of its global nature.
(btt1943) -
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I think I agree with Paul Krugman - we need another stimulus package right away. Question is how do we get there with all these crazy economist types saying we've overdone it already. I'm from California and California needs a stimulus package - right now!
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Thank you for providing this very useful data to the community at large. Definitely the type of stuff I to which I can point my friends & family.
It's nice to hear the back & forth on the topic, but I think there may be something fundamentally missing from the argument on both sides.
1. This "Great Recession" has been decades in the making. It's not some "housing crisis gone wrong", it's not some Republican vs. Democrat problem, it's the systemic result of a decades of political policy decisions basically voted in by "us" (the US tax-payer).
2. There is one simple solution to this crisis, become a net exporter again. That's it. The US has a 25-year trade deficit, it owes lots of money to lots of people, you need to let those people cash out.
It may mean less (or no) retirement, it may mean longer work hours, reduced entitlement programs, less cars, less personal space. It sounds annoying, but the other 95% of the world have been living just fine with this "less".@Dadfox: it's easy to talk about California needing a stimulus package, but the stimulus is only good if it solves problem #2. And it has to be recognized that printing another trillion dollars is akin to forcing people to work longer. More stimulus means people having to leave retirement or retirees not having enough money. It means rising prices on goods and frankly a downward pull on your quality of life. Printing money only delays the underlying problem.
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dadfox,
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The biggest thing California needs is a repeal of the property tax provisions which make the prime determinant of your tax rate the length of time you've been in your home. Seriously, the way California's tax system is organized is ridiculous and makes it nearly impossible for the state to be solvent over long periods of time that include variability. -
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The following is a comment to Paul Solman's discussion on unemployment:
Subject: Bernanke Saved US Economy From Another Great Depression. Up To Now
Before getting to Ben Bernanke, let me get the important matter out the way. What is worse than being unemployed is to be homeless and unemployed. Post-Science Institute has made the decision and recommends that it is willing to reduce rents by 25% to its just unemployed tenants, who cannot afford to pay full rents.
Helicopter Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman has been blamed by fame-seeking politicians for having wetted the mattresses, after he has saved the fire threatening the US economy from another Great Depression following the advice of the late Milton Friedman, the greatest thinker of the twentieth century, by throwing money out of helicopters.
The "speculative" unemployment report by Paul Solman, a report with accurate foresight, at least, in relevance, if not in accuracy, has led us to a graph showing what is installed for the Great Recession, if ignorance continues (For a look at how unemployment in the Great Recession compares to the Great Depression, you might want to check out Time Magazine's Justin Fox, who has posted an interesting chart.):
The chart shows the INTERRUPTION of the Great Depression of 2007 by Bernanke. If the left side of the Quantity Theory of Money PQ=VM is not taken care of in time by innovations, which will increase P and Q, the chart will continue to decline to the predictable form of the Great Depression of 1929, and the punishment by non-violable laws of nature will continue through mostly high unemployment. Hugh Ching, Post-Science Institute 7-6-2009
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[...] Job losses in the Great Recession vs. in the Great Depression … [...]
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