Whatever is happening with the economy right now, 'green shoots' is the wrong metaphor for it
I was walking up Broadway a couple days ago when I saw a BusinessWeek cover in the window of a magazine shop, illustrated with a couple of green shoots poking out of the ground, on "Signs of Life" in the housing market. So much for that housing bottom, I thought to myself.
The green shoots metaphor is now dominating economic coverage. I just did a search on Google News and found 1,481 references. Which is disturbing, because green shoots signify growth and new beginnings—and there are really no signs yet in the economic data of that.
What there are, are lots of signs that the precipitous economic decline that began in November is moderating. You have to have a moderation in the rate of decline before you can have a recovery, so this is really good news. But it's not green shoots. It's not even seeds being planted. It's more like preliminary rototilling.
Update: The Obama administration's preferred phrase appears to be "glimmers of hope." Which is fine, I guess—it's not inaccurate, plus it's glimmery. I still prefer "preliminary rototilling," though.
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1
Your dedication to truth in metaphor (simile?) is appreciated. If you could also police calling someone who no one listens to a Cassandra even if he/she isn't right all the time or referring to taking on any great challenge "tilting at windmills," even if the threat is real, that would be great as well.
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2
How about "composting" or "fertilizer creation." The economy is showing signs of turning from complete s--- into something productive.
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3
Justin, What do you make of this?
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1890560,00.html -
4
pneogy,
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That is simply more happy talk. I love it. When things start really going bad like a house on fire, I will come back to this post and point to Exhibit A. Not in joy, but with the satisfaction that reality prevailed. -
5
bryan,
Yah, I know it's happy talk - cavalier at best, intended to mislead at worst. The publisher should put a disclaimer on articles such as this. -
6
@pneogy: I thought it was rather strongly stated (for those who haven't clicked through, it's from our partners at 24/7 Wall Street and it's headlined "More Quickly Than It Began, The Banking Crisis Is Over"). I guess I would agree that the particular banking crisis that began with Lehman's failure is now over. I mean, even George Soros is saying that now. But the broader deleveraging that started in the summer of 2007 is still with us, and that brings the potential for lots more trouble.
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7
Justin,
Thank you for your response. The author of the article says that everything that followed Paulson's TARP1 is unnecessary now - not exactly the cautious note that you sound.
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