Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

Employment decline now worse than in 1981-82 recession

I've updated my wildly popular chart of the decline in payroll employment with the nasty new numbers that the Bureau of Labor Statistics released this morning. TIME.com graphics czar Feilding Cage is out, so I made the chart myself, which explains why it's uglier than usual:

febjoblossesreviseThe months listed on the right are when payroll employment peaked before the recession. And for some reason Excel refused to render the numbers along the y-axis as percentages (and I really don't have time right now to go back and figure out how to fix it). So it's not a decline in unemployment of just over 0.03%, it's a decline of just over 3% (3.17%, to be precise).

What I get from the chart—apart from the realization that I have no future in graphic design—is that job losses from this recession are now worse than in 1981-1982, which is generally considered to have been the most severe economic downturn in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Barring a more or less unimaginable turnaround in the month or two, they will be much worse. Just look at how steep that brown line is!

The employment decline was even bigger (in percentage terms) in 1957-1958—and I hope William Polley will put a chart up later (update: he has, sort of) with all the postwar recessions so we can see. But that chart will be a lot harder to read, and I just don't think the 1957-1958 downturn, a sharp but pretty brief recession caused by a Federal Reserve crackdown on inflation, is really relevant to our current situation. That was a bunch of auto and steelworkers getting laid off temporarily. This is something else entirely.

It's probably still nowhere near as dramatic a chart as the monthly numbers from 1931 and 1932 would make. But the BLS wasn't on the case back then.

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Comments (9)
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  • 1

    You can see the leap in Florida's numbers -- it's just stark: http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/article981538.ece

  • 2

    Excel tips:
    -
    Double click on the Y axis to get to Format Axis. In the Scale tab, change "Value (X) axis Crosses at:" to a very low number, below your minimum Y value (e.g. -.001)
    -
    Also you might want to double click on the legend, title, axes, and labels, and change to a larger font size.
    -
    All this is for pre 07 version, but 07 will have something similar.

  • 4

    Thanks for the update of this graph, I don't know if it's "useful" or not, but it does a good job showing the severity of the current situation.
    .
    -MBirchmeier

  • 5

    with regard to your previous post, and holding executives accountable....
    _
    this recession started as relatively mild (the slope is the least severe for this recession for its first 10 months) -- then a tipping point was reached. One finds it difficult to believe that all of these financial geniuses were unaware of the potential impact that a severe recession would have -- there is more than enough history there to tell them that they were being grossly irresponsible -- and its that level of irresponsibility that rises to criminality given how much money has been lost.

  • 6

    By any benchmark, the current damning economic disaster could well be the result of incessant consumerism dictated by the ailing western capitalism. Now is the time for CHANGE, a change of lifestyle from the incredibly extravagance and waste to one of frugality and saving. This is the only way to bring back some kind of decency in life.

    Moreover, the latest rate of unemployment has increased to 8%+, that means 12+ million workers are now rendered idle. One ugly consequence of the highly stressed jobless could be the expected increase of criminal activities and protests. Come this summer, with hot and long days, things may turn unbearable, and nobody will like it.

    Try endurance, it is a virtue.
    Tan Boon Tee

  • 7

    Let's be clear. Anytime employment has a decline which exceeds that of 1981-82, we are in a depression.
    -
    Further, I think so far that we are doing okay for a depression. Yeah, we're headed for 10%+ unemployment and some really awful GDP numbers, but the good thing is that most people are not panicking.
    -
    A good number of Americans with jobs are saving and many investors are allowing capital to sit on the sidelines but ready to deploy it at the first sign of stabilization. Nobody will call the bottom exactly, but when we get there it will be a lot like getting a plane on the ground after a rough descent. It may not have been pretty, easy or smooth, but it was a landing...and in that there is sweet relief.

  • 8

    Out of curiosity, is this number of jobs shed by the economy, or 'unemployment' as measured by those claiming unemployment?
    .
    If it's the latter, is there a (meaningful) way of measuring those still without jobs that have exhausted unemployment benefits?
    .
    -MBirchmeier

  • 9

    This is a bad joke. What exactly is different about the brown line(today's recession) vs the red, yellow, green or purple lines of prior recessions ? Nothing. 4 of the 5 previous recessions on this chart show the same pattern of increasing declines in employment, and then a sudden stop, and either a leveling off of the rate of decline, or a decrease in the rate of decline. In other words, looking at this graph, the natural assumption has to be that just as in nearly every other recession, our current recession should see either a leveling off, or dramatic improvement in the rate of decline in employment. In graphical terms, this graph shows that we should expect the brown line to suddenly level off or begin to climb soon. So, why all the hysteria ?

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