Outside the U.S. and China, there's not all that much stimulating going on
The International Labor Organization has put together a useful compendium of economic stimulus efforts around the world (click here to download the Word file). I know this not because they announced it or anything but because a former student of Harvard economist Dani Rodrik works at the ILO and wrote in to Rodrik point out some flaws in a different stimulus spending compendium put together by some folks at Boston University that had previously been discussed on Rodrik's blog. Don't you just love how information gets disseminated in the 21st century?
Anyway, the bottom line, according to the ILO, is that stimulus plans announced so far amount to about 3.3% of global GDP per year over the coming two years. But what really struck me were the differences in stimulus spending among the world's major economies. Here's a sampling from the report, with the stimulus expressed as a percentage of GDP per year:
Australia 0.9%
Brazil 0.2%
China 6.9%
France 1.3%
Germany 1.6%
Italy 0.3%
Japan 2.3%
Russia 1.1%
Spain 8.1%
United Kingdom 0.9%
United States 5.5%
The concern is that if we in the U.S. do lots of stimulating and other economies don't, much of the money will just leak out overseas as we spend on imports but others don't buy our exports. China seems to be doing its part, but most of the developed world is not. (Neither is most of the developing world, but that's largely because it's hard for them to borrow the money to stimulate with—that is, it's not really up to them.)
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1
Justin,
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We're all screwed. I have enough for a 6 month reserve.
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Let's play a game called. Pick the bottom.
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Today, March 3, 2009 at 10:57 CST, I declare that we shall see Dow 4000 as the low.
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Anybody else want to declare a bottom?
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1882729,00.html -
2
From your chart, shouldn't that be "U.S., China, and Spain"? Since at 8.1%, Spain is ahead of both the U.S. and China on a percentage basis. It was my understanding that most of the problems with the EU countries' stimulus plans is based on their difficulty in agreeing what to do as a whole and reluctance to help out countries like Greece. But I could be wrong about that.
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bryan,
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I wouldn't try to pick the bottom based on a value. I'd look at p/e ratios, which people are finally, finally starting to remember exist. I'd say the market will bottom out somewhere around a p/e of 9-10. If I remember right in the 1930's it dropped all the way to 6-7 before beginning to rebound. -
3
From your chart, shouldn't that be "U.S., China, and Spain"? Since at 8.1%, Spain is ahead of both the U.S. and China on a percentage basis. It was my understanding that most of the problems with the EU countries' stimulus plans is based on their difficulty in agreeing what to do as a whole and reluctance to help out countries like Greece. But I could be wrong about that.
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No, you're right about that on the whole. Spain's got a really forward-looking leftist gov't right now, but they're the exception.
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The rest of the EU gov'ts are either neoliberal dead-enders from the 90's (Britain, Italy) or Bush clones (Germany and France, ironically enough). -
4
I thought that Saver/Export Countries were supposed to spend now, while Spender Countries were supposed to save now. The new plan must be for everybody to spend, but except for Spain, a Spender Country, it looks like the European countries are making sure that they spend less, and other countries are following their lead, not ours.
It's also possible that everybody else blames the US and China for this mess, and expect us to do the heavy lifting. For better or worse, it looks like we are.
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5
I'd like to suggest another reason why countries aren't going crazy "stimulating" the economy -- they recognize that you don't stimulate someone that is sick, you give them time to heal.
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most of the countries on the list already have strong "safety net" provisions; whereas the US has to create/expand its programs to meet the need created by the economic problems. Their existing commitment to social spending means that they don't need to provide "extra" like the US does just to keep the wolf from the door for their citizens.... -
6
DTL,
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At some point, these guys might realize and hopefully not before we are in a big D - Depression (I think we can safely assume we are in a little d - depression right now) that past imbalances must be rectified. You cannot have an economy that exports more than you import or vice-versa over a sustained period of time.
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That is essentially Voodoo economics on a global scale. Just like trickle-down tax policies don't work, trickle-out growth and dependency upon the US and China will not either. Growth in global economic terms requires velocity of capital...if not, then you have a return to the barter system. -
7
Australia 0.9%
That figure only takes into account the first stimulus package that passed late last year. The Rudd government also passed a second stimulus package last month, worth 3-4 times the size of the first.
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8
The concern about "leakage" of our stimulus spending suggests that we should focus on things like infrastructure spending--where we know we are creating construction jobs in this country--as opposed to tax cuts that get spent on foreign goods. I realize it isn't black and white, as much of our steel and other goods used in construction now comes from overseas, but there are non-protectionist ways to try to keep as much as the benefit from our stimulus package here in the US.
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9
We should take ability to stimulate into consideration:
China has 2 trillion saved in USD-denominated assets so they're in an excellent position.
The U.S. has the unique advantage of the dollar as reserve currency and perception of treasuries as ultimate safe harbor (other than gold), so it can borrow magnitudes more than most at a much cheaper rate without exchange rate fluctuation risks.
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10
I don't see why Brazil should stimulate its economy... the banks are solid, there's no debt (they export more than they import, meaning that jobs are kept in State, not off State like here in the US). Overall, Brazil's economy is in good shape because the homework was done! In the US, however, our jobs and businesses are overseas... in here, we spend far more than we earn; we are moved by consumption, not by rational spending. The result is now clear: the US is broken. I know, the dollar gives the US a powerful weapon: inflation to pay debt! And then, who will pay the bill? China, with their USD reserves.
Bottom line: no stimulus will fix the US unless they bring back the jobs they've outsourced to China. In the end, balance is everything and this crisis is another sign that a country cannot sustain such debt for a long period of time.
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