Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

Is $275,000 per job a good deal?

Joe Klein argues that the Republican talking point that Obama's stimulus plan will cost $275,ooo per new job created is "phony-baloney propaganda." I had actually been thinking it was the best anti-stimulus argument that John Boehner's office had managed to come up with so far (which isn't saying much, but it's saying more than "phoney-baloney"). Barack Obama had said the stimulus package would save or create 3-4 million jobs, the current price tag is $825 billion, $825 billion divided by 3 million is $275,000. Obama gave them the numbers. The Republicans just did the math. If they'd been more favorably disposed they could have divided by 4 million jobs and gotten $206,500. Either way, it's a pretty big price tag.

Is it worth it? Job creation isn't the only goal of the stimulus package—keeping individuals and state governments spending is another intended result. Also, the 3-4 million job estimate appears to be what Obama's economic advisers actually came up with, rather than a politically driven made-up number (which presumably would have been much bigger) or even just an extra-hopeful scenario that counts all the potential follow-on effects of lower energy costs, a better-educated populace, etc. That doesn't mean the estimate is right, but at about 2% of the labor force, it seems reasonable enough. And if those jobs saved or created are permanent and/or above the median household income of $50,000, that $275,000 starts looking better.

What's more, if you think we might be in a downward spiral in which more economic trouble begets more financial trouble which begets more economic trouble, and so on, a stimulus package that stopped this spiral in its tracks would save a lot more than 3-4 million jobs. That risk of economic implosion is awfully hard to quantify. Although I guess there are a lot of unemployed Wall Street risk modelers around who could churn out an estimate for us.

Update I just want everyone to know that, in a comment to Joe's post, somebody called our own plukasiak "a bitter Republican."

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  • 1

    Borrowing beyond people's means supposedly got us here and now, we are supposed to believe that the government borrowing beyond its means will fix it. Explain that to me, please.

  • 2

    "What's more, if you think we might be in a downward spiral in which more economic trouble begets more financial trouble ...."
    .
    Isn't that exactly what the Fed with its quantitative easing and Treasury with its repeated TARPs suggesting?

  • 3

    Borrowing beyond peoples means did NOT get us here.

    What got us here is that we are replacing all of our higher paying jobs with lower paying jobs.

    For instance in the free report that I created and you can download, I document using the BLS (dept of labor) data how we have done away with over 1,200,000 jobs that paid 96,000 per year and replaced them with jobs that paid 34,000 per year.

    From my own experience, you need to make about 52,000 per year just to survive per household.

    If President Obama were to create these jobs, they too would pay 34,000 per year or less.

    When you realize that the whole World's economy depends on the American consumer being able to purchase things that they want, then you begin to realize where the real problem is.

    Download the free report and see for yourself as it documents ALL job categories and shows how many people and what they pay and its in a format that anybody can understand.

    Virgil
    http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com

  • 4

    I'm not as worried about the job creation numbers, as I am concerned with what the jobs are doing.
    .
    For a quarter million dollars, you could pay a bureaucrat to push papers in the government for a few years, hire a soldier for a tour of duty in one of our ongoing 'conflicts', or you could train and employ someone that can build and maintain a few gigawatts of windmills or solar panels that provide cheap power for decades.
    .
    Crazed, this comment kind of relates to your question, what is the difference between the deficits and borrowing that got us into this mess, and the deficits and borrowing that will get us out? The answer is what you have to show for it at the end. Borrowing $80,000 to go to college is not the same as borrowing $80,000 to plan a trip off the world, and party in every famous nightclub. In this case, I see a pretty large difference in borrowing to stabilize the economy vs. borrowing because we don't want to raise taxes in a good economy.
    .
    -MBirchmeier

  • 5

    $275K/job is not worth it, sorry.
    _
    The reason why the cost/job is so high is because its not really a stimulus package -- rather, its a repackaging of various programs advanced by Obama during the campaign in a box labelled "economic stimulus". (Bush did the exact same thing with his tax cuts -- the same tax cuts that were advanced in reaction to the budget surpluses were repackaged as a stimulus!)
    _
    This is not to criticize the projects (although the tax cuts are extremely ill advised, and because most are permanent, they're not a "stimulus" per se). Rather that as economic stimuli, they are not going to be cost/effective.
    _
    One of the problems is that Obama has adopted the pro-business economic rhetoric and assumptions that prevails in the Village. We obsess over the GDP, ignoring the fact that the emphasis should be on job creation and higher wages as a measure of economic growth and prosperity. (i.e. the false assumption that if you have a higher GDP, you have more jobs and higher wages.)
    _
    unless and until we redo our economic assumptions (concentrating not on the business climate, but on the labor climate) everything will continue to deteriorate...

  • 6

    So why are we giving away 140,000 jobs per month to guest workers?

    If a job is worth $275,000, then 140,000 guest workers per month comes to

    $275,000 x 140,000 x 12 = $462,000,000,000 per year BORROWED from other nations, to give jobs to foreign workers

    go to http://www.numbersusa.com to veryif the job numbers and do something about this

  • 7

    that's 462 billion per year - insane

  • 8

    that's $1,540 for every man woman and child in the USA $6,160 per family, per year for foreign worker subsidy - just for the jobs

    and that doesnt count supressed wages for the family of 4

  • 9

    your math is wrong the $275,000 figure is not a yearly figure, also guest workers tend to use up a lot of their dough in the country they live in while sending back the extra cash. So maybe their savings are not reinvested in the US but your argument is basically without merit.

  • 10

    Absolutely. Let me avail myself of some slightly crummy 'politician's math': We spend $275,000 per 'job created'. That's it for the expense, right? Well a job pays what? Let's say $40K (compares favorably enough w/ GDP per capita after we consider that over a quarter of that 'per capita' don't work). Why pay 7 times the job's pay! Stupid government.
    What's that you say. A job isn't a one year thing? BLS reports average tenure on the job of 5 years (for those over 25) and economists estimate average employment tenure at between 8 to 12 years (depending on how they're counting)? Hmm, starts to look like a wash and we haven't even figured in any wage growth, etc. By politician math, this is could be a bargain!

  • 11

    philipe says "your math is wrong the $275,000 figure is not a yearly figure"

    while it may be true that the $275,000 is not a recurring figure for each immigrant after the first year, it IS true that right now 140,000 are coming in each month, 12 months per year, with no end in sight. That's what I was saying, and I stand by my figures.

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