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Moving from Judd Gregg's dubious tax math to Robert Reich's dubious tax language
Our blog posts here are always followed by a list of "Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)." In my early days at TIME these were embarrassingly useless, but now they're pretty good, so when I saw the link under my post on Judd Gregg's dubious tax math to something headlined "Taxes - So, is the U.S. tax system regressive or progressive?" I clicked on it. The link was broken, but a little googling sent me to the actual post, by Georgetown business school professor Ken Homa. It's a fair-minded look at the federal tax system that concludes:
The bottom line: all of the components are progressive: federal income taxes, estate taxes, payroll taxes. So, it logically follows that the combined program is progressive.
Progressive in this context bears no ideological freight. It simply means that if your income is higher, you pay a higher percentage of it in taxes. The only controversial point here for anybody who has looked at the data is on payroll taxes. Strictly speaking they're not progressive: because Social Security only taxes the first $106,800 in annual earnings, those in the top income quintile pay a smaller percentage of their income in payroll taxes than those in the bottom four quintiles. Homa's argument is that because Social Security benefits are doled out according to a pretty progressive formula, the program works out to being progressive overall. I'm willing to buy that, up to a point. Somewhere in the top 10% or 5% of the income distribution things must turn regressive, as they do in the top 1% for income taxes and overall federal taxes. Still, on the whole he's undeniably right: the federal tax system is progressive, albeit with a modest regressive kink at the very top of the income distribution.
Anyway, all of this is a longwinded prelude to a Robert Reich blog post that Homa links to, in which Reich claims that:
Viewed as a whole, the current tax system is quite regressive.
Reich offers no numbers to back this up, just the assertion that payroll taxes and state and local sales taxes are regressive. Which is true (sales taxes are regressive because high earners tend to spend a smaller portion of their incomes). But on the federal level, payroll tax regressivity isn't nearly enough to counteract the progressivity of the income tax and the estate tax, a fact that is frequently and extensively documented by the Congressional Budget Office. There is no such handy up-to-date summary of the distributional impact of state and local taxes. The best thing I could find was a 1994 study published by the right-leaning but reality-based Tax Foundation, which found state taxes on the whole to be moderately progressive. I'm willing to believe that in states that rely heavily on sales taxes (Tennessee is the champ, with an average state and local sales tax rate of 9.36%, according to the Tax Foundation), this might not be the case. But viewed as a whole, it appears to be nonsense to say that our tax system is "quite regressive." It's not as progressive as Robert Reich would like it to be. It may not be as progressive as it should be. But it's not regressive.
I'm not trying to say this is equivalent to the Wall Street Journal editorial page's decades of misinformation on taxes (a tradition begun by the late, lamented Jude Wanniski—although in the beginning I think Jude was actually trying to tell the truth). It is misinformation, though, and when I find easy-to-refute misinformation I like to try and squash it.
Update Yay, Lane Kenworthy (see comments)! He points to a more recent Tax Foundation study on the progressivity/regressivity of state and local taxes (I searched for a while on their site yesterday and didn't find it, then called their PR office but didn't hear back), and has written his own blog post on the topic. Here's what the Tax Foundation says effective state and local tax rates were, as of 2004, across income quintiles (this does not factor in the distributional effects of government spending):
Bottom quintile, 7.9%; second quintile, 10.3%; third quintile, 10.9%; fourth quintile, 11.2%; top quintile, 10.3%
When they added in federal taxes, here's what they got:
Bottom quintile, 13%; second quintile, 23.2%; third quintile, 28.2%; fourth quintile, 31.3%; top quintile 34.5%
So state and local taxes are modestly progressive up through the bottom four-fifths of the income distribution, then turn regressive in the top fifth (and I bet that regressivity starts looking pretty dramatic when you get into the top 10%, 5%, 1%). Meanwhile, the tax system overall remains progressive, but most of that progressivity is found toward the bottom of the income distribution. Once you get to the top three-fifths it's really pretty flat. And obviously, given that federal taxes turn regressive within the top 1% of the income distribution, I imagine that overall taxes must do that somewhere in the top 5% or 10%.
The verdict: "Quite regressive" is still an inaccurate description of the American tax system. "Not all that progressive, especially when you're talking about the middle class and up," is correct. So is "regressive among those making six figures and more." So is "easy on the very rich."
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1
gee, after one good post on taxes, you go back to repeating GOP talking points.
When were talking about taxes, we're talking about TAXES, and not how those taxes are spent. "Payroll" taxes are regressive, period. It does not matter how the money is spent -- no one analyses law enforcement budgets to see who benefits most from law enforcement (the wealthy), or the Pentagon budget to see whose assets are being protected with by the defense establishment (the wealthy have a lot more to lose if we are attacked/invaded). And its grossly intellectually dishonest to switch from "the income tax structure" to benefit levels for Medicare and Social Security. (and since wealthy people live longer than poor people, its dishonest to discuss benefit levels in the way its done here; rather one needs to look at the aggregate payout to poor & middle class vs wealthy people over their lifetimes.)
Moreover, the whole article is dishonest in that it looks at tax structures, rather than taxes as a percentage of income, and completely ignores the gas tax and other federal taxes and "fees" as well as the tax burden that is passed on to consumers by corporations.
As for state and local taxation, those are utterly regressive -- while state income taxes have some progressive elements, sales, excise, and real estate taxes make up a far higher percentage (47.7%) of individual taxes paid to states than do individual income taxes (35.4%)(see http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/07taxdis.html) -- and the regressive nature of local taxation is even worse.
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2
One other thing...
Considering the changes that have been made to the tax code since FY 1993, there is simply no way that any study of "who pays what taxes" done in 1994 has any relevance to a discussion of current tax burdens. (I mean, I found the 2007 table without any problem at all....) -
3
@plukasiak: But that 2007 table doesn't say anything about the effective state tax rates for different income groups. Federal taxes, taken as a whole, are progressive—except within the top 1% of the income distribution. That's documented pretty comprehensively by the CBO (and their calculations include excise taxes and the pass-through effects of corporate taxes). The questions are (a) whether state and local taxes, taken as a whole, are regressive, and if so (b) whether that regressivity is marked enough to offset the progressivity of the federal tax system. I haven't been able to find reliable up-to-date answers, but my informed guesses are:
(a) Maybe, but the progressivity of state income taxes can outweigh a lot of regressivity in sales taxes, and real estate taxes (the big source of local revenue) are, on the whole, despite lots of exceptions at the individual level, progressive.
(b) I seriously doubt it. The state and local tax burden is about half the federal tax burden, so state and local taxes would have to be mighty regressive to outweigh the progressivity of the federal tax system. Show me a serious study that proves me wrong and I'll jump into the "quite regressive" camp in a flash. Until then I'm saying we've got a moderately progressive tax system with some weird stuff going on among the millionaires. -
4
Some help on the progressivity of state and local taxation is available in a report from the Tax Foundation: http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/2282.html. See also the post and comments at http://lanekenworthy.net/2009/01/05/how-progressive-are-our-taxes/.
The short answer: State and local taxes are regressive, so they reduce the progressivity of the tax system. Are taxes nevertheless progressive overall? If you include government transfers as income in calculating effective tax rates (taxes paid divided by income), yes. If you don't include transfers, the tax system is essentially flat; effective rates are similar across the income spectrum.
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5
The state and local tax burden is about half the federal tax burden, so state and local taxes would have to be mighty regressive to outweigh the progressivity of the federal tax system.
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on whom?
especially among those in the lower income brackets who pay little or no federal income tax, the burden of state and local taxes far exceeds their federal tax burden.
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according to the Tax Policy Center (a joint effort of the Brookings Institute and the Brookings Institute)Individual income taxes account for a relatively small share of state and local revenue: across all states, their contribution to general revenue rose from a low of 9.1 percent in 1972 to a peak of 13.7 percent in 2001 at the end of the 1990s boom, before falling back to 11.3 percent in 2003. Collections in 2006 totaled $269 billion, or 12.3 percent of general revenue....Most state income taxes are fairly flat, even in those states that apply graduated tax rates. In several states the top tax bracket begins at a very low level of taxable income; Alabama, for example, starts its top rate at $3,000. In other states the difference between the lowest and the highest tax rates is small: just 2 percentage points in Connecticut and Mississippi, for example."
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http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/state-local/specific/income.cfm
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in other words, state and local income taxes are, in the aggregate, only slightly progressive, and comprise only 12.3% of general revenue, with the remainder of state and local income coming from "non-progressive" sources.
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One other point that should be mentioned is "what do taxes pay for"? Most of the industrialized world has "single payer" health care...if we take this "european" perspective of seeing healthcare as something you pay "federal taxes" for (i.e. add health care costs to individual tax burdens), I doubt that the federal tax system would be progressive at all. In other words, the "progressivity" of the federal tax structure is dependent upon the US government not providing services that are considered federal responsibilities in the rest of the "civilized" world.
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BTW, do you have a link to the CBO study you mention? -
6
@plukasiak: The CBO link is in the post.
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@Lane Kenworthy: Thanks! -
7
where did you get this data " The state and local tax burden is about half the federal tax burden,
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according to the Tax Center, the federal government's share of total tax receipts is about 51%, with state governments collecting 29% and local government collecting 20%.
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nor does the CBO study show much in the way of "progressivity" of the tax system. In 2005, the top quintile had 55.1% of pretax income, and 51.6% of after tax income. The other four quintiles saw varying improvement in their after tax income percentages that show no significant sign of "progressivity" -- Its hard to argue that a tax system is "progressive" when the top 20% still make well over 50% of all income -- and only pay a 3.5% "premium" for the privilege of a grossly unjust income distribution system.
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The CBO study also skews the data somewhat by including "negative income tax" as part of the tax burden for the lowest quintiles. The fact that there is a direct cash transfer to those in the lowest 40% based on tax returns doesn't mean that the federal tax burden for those quintiles isn't 10.7% for the lowest quintile -- they are paying those taxes, and the fact that they are getting money back from the government does not mean that those taxes were not paid. -
8
@plukasiak: Weird about the federal/state/local tax breakdown. My data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which says federal tax receipts plus social insurance receipts totaled $2.5 trillion on an annualized basis in the most recent quarter while state and local tax receipts plus social insurance receipts totaled $1.3 trillion. I don't know what explains the discrepancy there, but I guess I'd go with the Tax Policy Center's numbers.
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