Comments on: How to tackle foreclosures and unemployment at the same time http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/ Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:55:17 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: vbierschwale http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12559 vbierschwale Thu, 08 Jan 2009 15:52:34 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12559 To tackle unemployment, first you need credible numbers. If you use the unemployment report as a basis for your investing or business decisions, you need to read this article I wrote today at http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=700 Regards, Virgil http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com To tackle unemployment, first you need credible numbers.

If you use the unemployment report as a basis for your investing or business decisions, you need to read this article I wrote today at http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=700

Regards,

Virgil
http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com

]]> By: Barbara Kiviat http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12543 Barbara Kiviat Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:52:59 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12543 @Malcolm!: Wouldn't it be great? @Malcolm!: Wouldn't it be great?

]]> By: gmalcolms http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12538 gmalcolms Wed, 07 Jan 2009 03:23:39 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12538 Are you saying we need a US Statistics Authority (like the UK one)? Where can I send my resume? - Malcolm! Are you saying we need a US Statistics Authority (like the UK one)? Where can I send my resume?
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Malcolm!

]]> By: Barbara Kiviat http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12535 Barbara Kiviat Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:51:09 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12535 @curmudgeon: Which I guess helps prove my point. @curmudgeon: Which I guess helps prove my point.

]]> By: curmudgeon57 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12534 curmudgeon57 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:45:03 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12534 @Barbara: They are doing a remarkably poor job of hiding the aliens; 50,000 people go to Roswell every year for the anniversary. And how can we forget Indiana Jones at Area 51? @Barbara: They are doing a remarkably poor job of hiding the aliens; 50,000 people go to Roswell every year for the anniversary. And how can we forget Indiana Jones at Area 51?

]]> By: Barbara Kiviat http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12533 Barbara Kiviat Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:07:31 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12533 @plukasiak: Um, thanks? At least on the questioning-my-assumptions count. If I ever stop doing that, you have to let me know ASAP. Though I might disagree with you that I "fell for it" the first time around. I quoted the guy who runs the OCC as saying that they didn't understand why re-default rates were so high, and that it might be because servicers weren't doing the right sorts of modifications—a point I made in my own words right at the top of the post. - In general, I find it unlikely that there would be pointed and deliberate books cooking in the federal government. It's an easy narrative to grasp, but I have a feeling that the real problem is much more insidious—that everyone is colored by one ideology or another and that because of those pre-dispositions people will always see certain information as more salient, more worthy of basing an opinion on. Call me Pollyanna, but I think that people—even those currently running the country—are generally doing what they think is best. I'm not big on conspiracy theories. Well, except for the aliens. I do think they're hiding those. @plukasiak: Um, thanks? At least on the questioning-my-assumptions count. If I ever stop doing that, you have to let me know ASAP. Though I might disagree with you that I "fell for it" the first time around. I quoted the guy who runs the OCC as saying that they didn't understand why re-default rates were so high, and that it might be because servicers weren't doing the right sorts of modifications—a point I made in my own words right at the top of the post.
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In general, I find it unlikely that there would be pointed and deliberate books cooking in the federal government. It's an easy narrative to grasp, but I have a feeling that the real problem is much more insidious—that everyone is colored by one ideology or another and that because of those pre-dispositions people will always see certain information as more salient, more worthy of basing an opinion on. Call me Pollyanna, but I think that people—even those currently running the country—are generally doing what they think is best. I'm not big on conspiracy theories. Well, except for the aliens. I do think they're hiding those.

]]> By: plukasiak http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12532 plukasiak Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:10:42 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12532 As the "cynical" commenter cited in the post, allow me to explain why I was skeptical of the numbers as presented by the OCC... _ the manner in which the data was released (no information on the actual number of 'renegotiated' mortgages involved, no information on the definitions used, etc.) strongly suggested a political agenda. Subsequently, I found (and commented on) that the Bushies were cutting out Sheila Bair from the "bailout" decisionmaking because of her campaign to have mortgages renegotiated (despite the fact that it her agency, the FDIC, has the most at risk when/if banks failed.) _ As you correctly note, "definitions" are important -- and even more important is whether the renegotiated mortgage terms are truly affordable to the homeowner <b>and</b> whether it made financial sense for the homeowner to continue to pay off the mortgage. It doesn't much matter if interest rates are adjusted if the homeowner is "underwater" -- and with a new "Walk Away" industry (see http://youwalkaway.com/ ) springing up that is advising mortgage holders how to "live payment free for up to 8 months or more and walk away without owing a penny" mortgage holders need to be very agressive in adjusting not just mortgage rates, but taking a hit on the mortgage amount, if they expect to lose as little as possible. _ Bushco is full of the people with the same mindset as those who supported the bankruptcy bill -- people who not merely exploit predatory lending practices, but want to make sure that they reap maximum benefit from those practices even if it means that average Joes wind up doing things like denying their children medical care. So it makes perfect sense that Bush administration officials would "cook the books", then release a highly selective data set in a way that gives that data set maximum exposure. _ And you fell for it -- at least initially. But its good to know that when questions are raised about the assumptions you make that you're willing to examine those assumptions more thoroughly. As the "cynical" commenter cited in the post, allow me to explain why I was skeptical of the numbers as presented by the OCC...
_
the manner in which the data was released (no information on the actual number of 'renegotiated' mortgages involved, no information on the definitions used, etc.) strongly suggested a political agenda. Subsequently, I found (and commented on) that the Bushies were cutting out Sheila Bair from the "bailout" decisionmaking because of her campaign to have mortgages renegotiated (despite the fact that it her agency, the FDIC, has the most at risk when/if banks failed.)
_
As you correctly note, "definitions" are important -- and even more important is whether the renegotiated mortgage terms are truly affordable to the homeowner and whether it made financial sense for the homeowner to continue to pay off the mortgage. It doesn't much matter if interest rates are adjusted if the homeowner is "underwater" -- and with a new "Walk Away" industry (see http://youwalkaway.com/ ) springing up that is advising mortgage holders how to "live payment free for up to 8 months or more and walk away without owing a penny" mortgage holders need to be very agressive in adjusting not just mortgage rates, but taking a hit on the mortgage amount, if they expect to lose as little as possible.
_
Bushco is full of the people with the same mindset as those who supported the bankruptcy bill -- people who not merely exploit predatory lending practices, but want to make sure that they reap maximum benefit from those practices even if it means that average Joes wind up doing things like denying their children medical care. So it makes perfect sense that Bush administration officials would "cook the books", then release a highly selective data set in a way that gives that data set maximum exposure.
_
And you fell for it -- at least initially. But its good to know that when questions are raised about the assumptions you make that you're willing to examine those assumptions more thoroughly.

]]> By: Barbara Kiviat http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12531 Barbara Kiviat Tue, 06 Jan 2009 19:59:08 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12531 Happy New Year to you, too, B from H! I am normally all for cynicism, but let's not forget what Frederick Mosteller said: "It is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to lie without them." Happy New Year to you, too, B from H! I am normally all for cynicism, but let's not forget what Frederick Mosteller said: "It is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to lie without them."

]]> By: bryanfromhouston http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/01/06/how-to-tackle-foreclosures-and-unemployment-at-the-same-time/comment-page-1/#comment-12530 bryanfromhouston Tue, 06 Jan 2009 18:10:30 +0000 http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/?p=3800#comment-12530 Barbara, - Happy New Year! Good to have you back. Evidence based public policy would only work if it was hand selected to match up with the ideologues policy preferences. You see, just as with Iraq, all other reality based projections are discounted in some manner. - The formula goes something like this. Reality based group collect data and relases data. Ideologue comes along and say well that can't be true, we all know x is true. It always has been. They must have some type of agenda and that evidence is not to be trusted. Barbara,
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Happy New Year! Good to have you back. Evidence based public policy would only work if it was hand selected to match up with the ideologues policy preferences. You see, just as with Iraq, all other reality based projections are discounted in some manner.
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The formula goes something like this. Reality based group collect data and relases data. Ideologue comes along and say well that can't be true, we all know x is true. It always has been. They must have some type of agenda and that evidence is not to be trusted.

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