Hank Paulson says he saved us from a broad systemic event
Here's what the Treasury Secretary has to say for himself this morning:
The actions taken by Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC in October have clearly helped stabilize our financial system. Before we acted, we were at a tipping point. Credit markets were largely frozen, denying financial institutions, businesses and consumers access to vital funding and credit. U.S. and European financial institutions were under extreme pressure, and investor confidence in our system was dangerously low. ...
As I assess where we are today, I believe we have taken the necessary steps to prevent a broad systemic event.
It's may also be true that actions by the Treasury and the Fed in September precipitated that almost broad systemic event. But still, Paulson is right. We've pulled back from the financial brink, which is why now we all have time to argue about loan modifications and AIG bailouts and GM bailouts and fiscal stimulus plans and the future profitability of Goldman Sachs and all that.
Oh, and here's Paulson explaining why he changed his mind about TARP:
We asked for $700 billion to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions. At the time, we believed that would be the most effective means of getting credit flowing again.
During the two weeks that Congress considered the legislation, market conditions worsened considerably. It was clear to me by the time the bill was signed on October 3rd that we needed to act quickly and forcefully, and that purchasing troubled assets – our initial focus – would take time to implement and would not be sufficient given the severity of the problem. In consultation with the Federal Reserve, I determined that the most timely, effective step to improve credit market conditions was to strengthen bank balance sheets quickly through direct purchases of equity in banks.
Update: He's still talking. He must have been working on this speech for a while. He says Treasury has decided that, for now, buying illiquid assets "is not the most effective way to use TARP funds." He also says "global imbalances"--not just regulatory failures--brought us to where we are.
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1
We stabilized the market from systemic collapse, but we failed to stabilize the market participants. In my mind, what we have currently is a market without viable participants. Either folks are too under-capitalized, too scared or too much in protection mode to actually participate. What good is the money to loan if no one can afford to pay it back? In essence, what we have done is completely backwards. We gave money to the banks to keep them from collapsing as the velocity of transactions decreased when we should have been giving money to the states and people through long-term sustained infrastructure style projects to provide jobs and create business for banks to sustain monetary velocity. If trickle-down economics didn't work with taxes, what made people think it would work with banks and businesses.
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GM doesn't need a bailout. The people that would buy GM cars need a bailout. If the people are provided with employment and bailed out (extended unemployment benefits, job training, food stamps), then there would be no need to bail out GM. Can you imagine how much better the economy would be doing right now if back in March the government had said let's fund $500b in infrstructure? We might not have needed $700b TARP.
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This simply goes back to a fundamental question. How you create a vibrant job market? Education. Job Training. Infrastructure that enhances efficiency. Small business loans. This isn't rocket science. -
2
shouldn't paulson be wearing spandex and a cape?
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3
"Before we acted, we were at a tipping point. Credit markets were largely frozen, denying financial institutions, businesses and consumers access to vital funding and credit. U.S. and European financial institutions were under extreme pressure, and investor confidence in our system was dangerously low. ...
As I assess where we are today, I believe we have taken the necessary steps to prevent a broad systemic event."
I'm sorry, Lehman was the tipping point. He's describing a system that had tipped. The problem with systemic thinking is the same problem I have with hybrid plans like TARP: Namely, they're decidedly dicey to assess, and easy to lobby.
"During the two weeks that Congress considered the legislation, market conditions worsened considerably. It was clear to me by the time the bill was signed on October 3rd that we needed to act quickly and forcefully, and that purchasing troubled assets – our initial focus – would take time to implement and would not be sufficient given the severity of the problem."
The problem is that this plan without a plan is impossible to assess. All we can really say is that things are better. Right now, I believe, it's too early for him to take credit for anything. He's the captain of a boat that's stop sinking for now, but whether someone plugged a hole, or the boat's running aground, or the boat's temporarily sitting on the back of a whale, he doesn't know.
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4
Does this remind anyone of how the war in Iraq is a war against Al Qaeda?
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