The unstimulating Chinese stimulus plan
The Chinese government's big announcement that it would spend $586 billion stimulating its domestic economy by building highways, railroads and airports excited global markets for about half a day Monday. Then everybody remembered that, as the WSJ reports:
Already, according to official estimates, infrastructure spending had been increasing by an average of 20% annually for the past 30 years ...
In other words: The Chinese are going to increase infrastructure spending. Tell me something I didn't already know.
Then again, roads and bridges aren't all that's in the Chinese plan. As TIME's Simon Elegant reports from Beijing:
[T]he government not only aims to boost its spending on infrastructure and projects but also seeks to get notoriously savings-obsessed Chinese consumers — who boast the highest household-savings rate in the world — to do more spending of their own. The package proposes to do this by, among other things, cutting taxes and abolishing existing limits on commercial banks' credit-lending.
Hmmm, we'll see if that actually happens, investors around the world seem to be saying. It would be great if it did. The U.S., after decades of debt-fueled consumer excess, now seems to be moving in China's direction: More household saving, more infrastructure spending, more exports, more government involvement in the financial system and the economy as a whole. To keep this long-needed shift from devastating the global economy, China and its neighbors need to move in the direction of the U.S.: more borrowing, more consumer spending, more imports, less government involvement in the financial system and the economy as a whole.
And no, I didn't just make up that argument. I stole it from Martin Wolf.
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1
I look forward to the chinese financial meltdown of 2060.
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2
By then we'll all have our own personal jetpacks, so it won't be that big a deal.
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3
by 2060 we may not have any gas left for the jet packs even after we drill baby drill. And I'm pretty sure solar/wind power isn't going to generate enough lift for takeoff. And I don't care how safe the scientists say it is (until 2078 when they suddenly link it to the increases in mutant population), I'm not strapping a personal nuclear reactor to my chest.
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4
The Chinese will follow the Japanese example and will pave all their beaches and fill all their rivers with infrastructure projects. It certainly won't save the world economy and it won't get workers in Shenzen factories to buy designer clothes and flat screen TVs.
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5
They could come to my house and contrete my lawn so I don't have to mow it anymore..
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6
I'm curious, Justin. Just what does a healthy, sustainable economy look like? It clearly isn't what we had, and it probably isn't what China has. I'm stumped.
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7
@curmudgeon57: Maybe if you average the Chinese and U.S. economies out?
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8
The Chinese near $600 billion stimulus may appear to be unstimulating to the outsiders, it will certainly boost its domestic economy in this time of gloom. Unfortunately the markets (in Asia particularly) only had a short positive response, unsure of how to get out of the terrible global economic quagmire.
In any case, Beijing is doing the right thing in trying to give the nation a more stable economic footing (like it had done before during the Asian currency crisis a decade ago). Never doubt its good intention.
After all, Chinese are traditionally BIG SAVERS.
(Tan Boon Tee) -
9
What had it been costing the Chinese to subsidize gasoline prices? They're saving some of that now, aren't they?
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