Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

Some 9-day-old news about Richard Rainwater and oil

Sorry I missed this, but my friend Brian O'Keefe from Fortune checked in with Richard Rainwater (like I kept saying I would) last week, and it turns out Rainwater got back into oil stocks a little while back:

Back in May, when oil was at $129 per barrel and rising, billionaire investor Richard Rainwater did something as prescient as it was shocking: He sold off all the energy stocks he owned.

Now he's making another bold move: He's betting on oil again.

A few weeks ago, when the price of oil tested a low near $90 per barrel for the first time in many months, Rainwater decided that he had found the right reentry point. "I reinvested back in the oil business, and it's worked out really well for me," he told me the other day. "I bought Exxon (XOM) stock under $75. I bought ConocoPhillips (COP) under $68. I bought Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) under $50. I bought BP (BP). I bought Statoil. I made a big bet on the sector. I bought a lot of stocks back."

They're obviously all cheaper now, but Rainwater never claimed to be much of a market timer. He does tend to be right over the long-run, though. Which makes this sort of a mixed message: Rainwater's betting on oil companies because he's a big believer that we're at or near peak oil and thus prices will inevitably keep rising. But they won't rise over the next couple of years if nobody can afford to drive their cars. So if Rainwater's right, maybe it's time to start shorting bike stocks.

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  • 1

    actually, Rainwater's timing looked to be about perfect --- were it not for the general collapse of the stock market. For instance, Exxon-Mobil was under $75 for two short periods in mid-September, then rebounded to over $80 by September 25. The prospect of a global recess has hurt EOM in the last two days...but its likely to rebound once the panic subsides...

  • 2

    Rainwater seems like a nice enough guy. Many years ago, I suppose when he was working for the Bass folks, he used to eat at a restaurant I worked for, and he was pretty decent about giving the waiters good but not imprudent stock tips. He ate salads, if I remember correctly.

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