Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

Getting there but not there yet

The G-7 finance ministers say they're going to "take decisive action and use all available tools to support systemically important financial institutions and prevent their failure." Hank Paulson says that:

As we develop plans to purchase equity ... we are working to develop a standardized program that is open to a broad array of financial institutions. Such a program would be designed to encourage the raising of new private capital to complement public capital. Consistent with the legislation, any equity the government purchases through a broadly available equity program would be on a non-voting basis, except with respect to the market standard terms to protect our rights as investors.

What's missing here--both from the G-7 and Paulson--is a delineation of which financial institutions are "systematically important" and which aren't. Until everybody knows that, things are gonna stay weird.

Update: Actually, another thing missing is any kind of clarity as to how current shareholders of these financial institutions that get government capital injections will make out. Although I guess the shareholders really don't matter nearly as much the creditors do.

Update 2: From Floyd Norris:

The Treasury may have to decide soon if Morgan Stanley is systemically important, and, if so, what to do about it. As speculation swirled this week, the already-depressed Morgan Stanley shares lost more than half their value, and letting it hang in the wind for long could weaken the firm irreparably.

One reason why action may be needed is that the principle allows for two interpretations, even if you assume, as I do, that Morgan Stanley is systemically important. (Mr. Paulson ducked a question about whether it and Goldman Sachs qualified.)

If the Treasury and the Fed will really “support” Morgan Stanley, then it is hard to understand why the stock should be so cheap. But if all they will do is prevent its failure, that could include a Bear Stearns-type takeover, in which shareholders come close to being wiped out. I find it hard to believe that Morgan Stanley is really in desperate straights, but this is a market and a time when almost no one is assumed to be solvent.

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  • 1

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVclVtXIfsRQ&refer=home

    Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy equity ``as soon as we can'' in banks and other financial institutions to restore market stability and revive economic growth.

    The Treasury is ``working to develop a standardized program that is open to a broad array of financial institutions,'' Paulson said at a press conference after a meeting in Washington of finance ministers and central bankers from Group of Seven countries.

    The injection of equity would be aimed at sustaining banks and other financial institutions through the worst credit crisis in seven decades. Paulson declined to give a timetable or details about the purchases, and signaled that markets may be in for turmoil ahead.

    ``We're going to do it as soon as we can do it and do it properly and do it effectively and right,'' Paulson said. ``Trust me, we are not wasting time; people are working around the clock to deal with this.''

    I think that he gets it now, but they've wasted quite a bit of time. Do we hear anything now about reverse auctions? You tell me.

  • 2

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/world/asia/11china.html?hp

    Who Says Capitalism Is Dying?
    Some good news:

    "BEIJING — Chinese leaders are expected to allow peasants to buy or sell land-use rights for the first time, a step that could draw hundreds of millions of farmers more firmly into the city-centered market economy.
    The new policy, which is being discussed this weekend by Communist Party leaders and could be announced within days, would be the biggest economic reform in many years and would mark another significant departure from the system of collective ownership and state control that China built after the 1949 revolution."

    Read on.

    Who says capitalism is dying?

  • 3

    PARTY LIKE ITS 1929
    (melody 1999, Prince)
    The artist: WilliamBanzai7

    I was dreamin' when I wrote this
    Forgive me if it goes astray
    But when I woke up this mornin'
    Coulda sworn it was Wall Street judgment day
    The S&P was purple and the DOW was gray,
    there were traders runnin' everywhere
    Tryin' to run from the destruction,
    U know I didn't even care

    CHORUS
    say say Dow heads down to zero Wall Street party over,
    oops out of time
    So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929

    I was dreamin' when I wrote this
    So sue me if I go to fast
    But Wall Street is just a party, and parties weren't meant to last
    Paper losses is all around us, my mind says prepare to fight
    So if I gotta die I'm gonna watch Cramer tonight

    CHORUS
    say say Dow heads down to zero--Wall Street party over,
    oops out of time
    So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929

    intro 2x
    Lemme tell ya somethin'
    If U didn't come to party,
    don't bother knockin' on Paulsons's bailout door
    It's burning a hole in his pocket,
    and baby he's ready to ask for more
    Yeah, everybody's got an unhedged bomb,
    we could all die any day
    But before I'll let that happen,
    I'll dance my investment banking life away

    Oh, they say
    say subprime securitization party over,
    oops out of time
    So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929
    say say DOW heads down to zero party over,
    oops out of time
    So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929

    we gonna, oww

    1929
    Dont ya wanna go 1929
    Dont ya wanna go 1929
    Dont ya wanna go 1929

  • 4

    Thanks, hot-shot Wall Street types for wrecking the economy. Thanks, government, for helping your hot-shot friends while people who are actually responsible for their finances get thrown under the bus. Thanks, people who lived off credit to live beyond your means, for your part, too. I just hope that "honest" people who aren't in debt and actually save a bit of money each month are not further damaged by this mess. Maybe the government should reward those who actually have not contributed to this economic meltdown. Wishful thinking, I know. The money was never really there, as far as stocks ... they are just the guess of the day of what a share is worth, so we're crying over something that was never real to begin with, until you cash out. Hopefully a global response will help and address both the banks and what is needed for job creation.

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