We know what the bailout bill might cost. What about not passing it?
I wrote an article this afternoon for TIME.com. It begins:
By voting down the proposed $700 billion financial bailout package — and causing a spectacular stock market rout — a majority of members in the House of Representatives made a clear statement that they didn't want to put taxpayers on the hook for the failures of financial institutions.
But there's a catch: taxpayers are already on the hook for the failures of financial institutions, and it's possible that the bill will actually be larger without bailout legislation than with it. That's because the regulators who mind the financial industry — the Federal Reserve, Treasury and FDIC — will keep doing what they've been doing: stepping in to prevent the chaotic failure of banks and other large financial institutions. This means continuing to put hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars at risk, but in a way that adheres to no clear plan of action and doesn't require members of Congress to explicitly approve their actions.
On Monday afternoon, Wall Street basically stopped trading to watch TV — mainly CNBC — to see how the House of Representatives would vote on the $700 billion bailout package. When it first started looking like the bill would fail, the Dow plummeted 389 points, or 3.6%, in just seven minutes. If it had continued at that pace for much longer, this would have been perhaps the most harrowing day in stock market history. It didn't, but things were still really, really bad. The Dow ended the day down 778 points, or 7%, and the S&P 500 — a better measure of the overall market — was down 107 points, or 8.8%, its worst performance since the 1987 market crash. And markets for bonds and short-term loans were, for the most part, nonexistent. Read more.
Basically, I'm still up in the air about whether the Paulson plan--either in its original form or as introduced in the House today--is a good idea. But make no mistake: American taxpayers are eventually going to have to put up a bunch of money to restart the financial system.
Update: Oh, and I should mention that I'm watching CNBC Asia at the moment and some Aussie says there's cahnage in Asian markets. Cahnage!
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1
i've got my fingers crossed that plan b= the TAD plan
honestly, the plan looked like a hail mary - buy the assets at market value and dont help really or buy the assets at an inflated price and hope they arent too far off in the long term - bleh.
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2
DESOLATION ROW (Part II)
(to the Melody of Desolation Row, Bob Dylan)
WilliamBanzai7They're selling dark postcards of Wall Street
They're painting passbooks black
The air is filled with busted banker dread
The circus is in town
Here comes the blind SEC commissioner
They've got him in a trance
One hand is tied to the tight-rope walker
The other is in his pants
And the FBI they're restless
They need somewhere to go
As Lady luck and I look out tonight
From Desolation RowCinderella, she seems so easy
"It takes one to know one," she smiles
And puts her hands in her back pockets
Bette Davis style
And in comes Wall Street Romeo, he's moaning
"You Belong to Me I Believe"
And someone says," You're in the wrong place, my friend
You better leave"
And the only sound that's left
After the town car limo goes
Is Cinderella sweeping up
On Desolation RowNow the market moon is almost hidden
The economic stars are beginning to hide
The fortunetelling lady
Has even taken all her things inside
All except for Paulson and Bernanke
And the hunchback of Pennsylvania Avenue
Everybody is making love
Or else expecting black market rain
And good old Warren, he's dressing
He's getting ready for the show
He's going to the carnival tonight
On Desolation RowNow Dick Fuld, he's 'neath the window
For him I feel so afraid
On his sixy-second birthday
She is an just old Wall Street maid
To him, market death is quite romantic
He wears a pinstripe vest
His profession's his religion
Her sin is his callous greed
And though his eyes are fixed upon
Noah's great rainbow
She spends his time peeking
Into Desolation RowThat "Maestro" Greenspan, disguised as Robin Hood
With his memories in a trunk
Passed this way an hour ago
With his friend, a seedy Wall Street skunk
He looked so immaculately frightful
As he bummed a cigarette
Then he went off sniffing drainpipes
And reciting the greek alphabet
Now you would not think to look at him
But he was famous long ago
For playing the free market violin
On Desolation RowDr. Bernanke, he keeps his world
Inside a Federal tin cup
But all his terminal patients
They're trying to blow it up
Now his nurse, some local loser
She's in charge of the subprime hole
And she also keeps the cards that read
"Have Mercy on their Souls"
They all play on penny whistles
You can hear them blow
If you lean your head out far enough
From Desolation RowOn the Street they've nailed the curtains
They're getting ready for the feast
The Phantom of the Markets
A perfect image of a priest
They're spoon feeding Hank Paulson
To get him to feel more assured
Then they'll kill him with their con men skills
After poisoning him with their greedy words
And the Phantom's shouting to skinny girls
"Get Outa Here If You Don't Know
Paulson's is just being punished for going
To Desolation Row"Now at midnight the GOP led by McCain
And their subhuman neocon crew
Come out and round up everyone
That knows more than they do
Then they bring them to the factory
Where the heart-attack machine
Is strapped across their shoulders
And then the market kerosene
Is brought down from their GOP castles
By insurance men who go
Check to see that nobody is escaping
To Desolation RowPraise be Roubini's Neptune
The Titanic sails at dawn
And everybody's shouting
"Which Side Are You On?"
And Elephant and Donkey Men
Fighting in the captain's tower
While calypso singers laugh at them
And fishermen hold flowers
Between the windows of the crashing market sea
Where lovely mermaids flow
And nobody has to think too much
About Desolation RowYes, I received the bullish newsletter
(About the time the door knob broke)
When you asked how my net was doing
Was that some kind of joke?
All these people that you mention
Yes, I know them, they're quite lame
I had to rearrange their faces
And give them all another name
Right now I can't read too good
Don't send me no more newsletters no
Not unless you mail them
From Desolation Row -
3
What about not passing it? Why not?
Most congressmen wisely voted against the $700 billion bailout yesterday, thus putting the outgoing Bush administration in a precariously fragile position. If you rescue, the tax-payers will suffer badly; if you don't, the share-holders will lose out terribly. What next? Sell more bonds immediately? Will the East Asian nations and the Gulf States buy this time?
The credit quakes in the West coast of Atlantic have been sending huge tsunamis to the East coast, engulfing one financial institution after another. At the same time, the after quake shocks are bashing the world economy into real impossible shape beyond recognition.
Have I not cautioned before the imminent danger in the late 2006 when the US deficit was getting unmanageable and the Iraq war burned hundreds of billions of dollars? The world is now paying a very heavy toll due to the follies, arrogance, extravagance and mismanagement of the rich and powerful nations.
Do the underdeveloped and developing countries deserve this awesome misfortune?
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4
i NEVER put much stock in what technocrats, including justin fox, have to say when i'm trying to understand the big picture.
PEOPLE SPOKE AGAINST THE BAILOUT, for the same reason: WE THE PEOPLE DO NOT TRUST YOU IN WASHNGTON, who have been in bed with wall street and corporate america,
from two very different ideological perspectives:
1) for libertarian repubs, there is an inherent conflict of interest between government and the people, which is the dumbest thing to believe as the government is the culmination of the people, and the bill favored the government.
2)for progressive dems, there is an intrinsic conflict of interest between the rich and the poor in a capitalist system, and the bill favored the rich.
now, its a matter of which side can harness the raw anger and energy of the people to their advantage.
don't like capitalism? try some socialism. simple as that.
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5
i NEVER put much stock in what technocrats, including justin fox, have to say when i'm trying to understand the big picture.
PEOPLE SPOKE AGAINST THE BAILOUT, for the same reason: WE THE PEOPLE DO NOT TRUST YOU IN WASHNGTON, who have been in bed with wall street and corporate america,
from two very different ideological perspectives:
1) for libertarian repubs, there is an inherent conflict of interest between government and the people, which is the dumbest thing to believe as the government is the culmination of the people, and the bill favored the government.
2)for progressive dems, there is an intrinsic conflict of interest between the rich and the poor in a capitalist system, and the bill favored the rich.
now, its a matter of which side can harness the raw anger and energy of the people to their advantage.
don't like capitalism? try some socialism. simple as that.
-
6
someone's snooping and sabotaging my blogging and emails... i know who you are and why you are sabotaging my activities, but you and your ilk will fail.
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7
Justin, repeat 100 times:
I must stop mocking Australian accents.
or as it would sound if i said it:
Aye Maaarst stop mawkin(g is optional) Orrrstrayan axe scents.
Feel to return to panic and counting former Kings of the Universe leaping from Manhattan office buildings now.
marcus.
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8
It's not mockery, it's homage.
Oh, and hey everybody: Marcus's TV show hits the airwaves (and the Internetwaves) in two weeks:
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/notquiteart/
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