Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

We know what the bailout bill might cost. What about not passing it?

I wrote an article this afternoon for TIME.com. It begins:

By voting down the proposed $700 billion financial bailout package — and causing a spectacular stock market rout — a majority of members in the House of Representatives made a clear statement that they didn't want to put taxpayers on the hook for the failures of financial institutions.

But there's a catch: taxpayers are already on the hook for the failures of financial institutions, and it's possible that the bill will actually be larger without bailout legislation than with it. That's because the regulators who mind the financial industry — the Federal Reserve, Treasury and FDIC — will keep doing what they've been doing: stepping in to prevent the chaotic failure of banks and other large financial institutions. This means continuing to put hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars at risk, but in a way that adheres to no clear plan of action and doesn't require members of Congress to explicitly approve their actions.

On Monday afternoon, Wall Street basically stopped trading to watch TV — mainly CNBC — to see how the House of Representatives would vote on the $700 billion bailout package. When it first started looking like the bill would fail, the Dow plummeted 389 points, or 3.6%, in just seven minutes. If it had continued at that pace for much longer, this would have been perhaps the most harrowing day in stock market history. It didn't, but things were still really, really bad. The Dow ended the day down 778 points, or 7%, and the S&P 500 — a better measure of the overall market — was down 107 points, or 8.8%, its worst performance since the 1987 market crash. And markets for bonds and short-term loans were, for the most part, nonexistent. Read more.

Basically, I'm still up in the air about whether the Paulson plan--either in its original form or as introduced in the House today--is a good idea. But make no mistake: American taxpayers are eventually going to have to put up a bunch of money to restart the financial system.

Update: Oh, and I should mention that I'm watching CNBC Asia at the moment and some Aussie says there's cahnage in Asian markets. Cahnage!

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  • 1

    i've got my fingers crossed that plan b= the TAD plan :)

    honestly, the plan looked like a hail mary - buy the assets at market value and dont help really or buy the assets at an inflated price and hope they arent too far off in the long term - bleh.

  • 2

    DESOLATION ROW (Part II)
    (to the Melody of Desolation Row, Bob Dylan)
    WilliamBanzai7

    They're selling dark postcards of Wall Street
    They're painting passbooks black
    The air is filled with busted banker dread
    The circus is in town
    Here comes the blind SEC commissioner
    They've got him in a trance
    One hand is tied to the tight-rope walker
    The other is in his pants
    And the FBI they're restless
    They need somewhere to go
    As Lady luck and I look out tonight
    From Desolation Row

    Cinderella, she seems so easy
    "It takes one to know one," she smiles
    And puts her hands in her back pockets
    Bette Davis style
    And in comes Wall Street Romeo, he's moaning
    "You Belong to Me I Believe"
    And someone says," You're in the wrong place, my friend
    You better leave"
    And the only sound that's left
    After the town car limo goes
    Is Cinderella sweeping up
    On Desolation Row

    Now the market moon is almost hidden
    The economic stars are beginning to hide
    The fortunetelling lady
    Has even taken all her things inside
    All except for Paulson and Bernanke
    And the hunchback of Pennsylvania Avenue
    Everybody is making love
    Or else expecting black market rain
    And good old Warren, he's dressing
    He's getting ready for the show
    He's going to the carnival tonight
    On Desolation Row

    Now Dick Fuld, he's 'neath the window
    For him I feel so afraid
    On his sixy-second birthday
    She is an just old Wall Street maid
    To him, market death is quite romantic
    He wears a pinstripe vest
    His profession's his religion
    Her sin is his callous greed
    And though his eyes are fixed upon
    Noah's great rainbow
    She spends his time peeking
    Into Desolation Row

    That "Maestro" Greenspan, disguised as Robin Hood
    With his memories in a trunk
    Passed this way an hour ago
    With his friend, a seedy Wall Street skunk
    He looked so immaculately frightful
    As he bummed a cigarette
    Then he went off sniffing drainpipes
    And reciting the greek alphabet
    Now you would not think to look at him
    But he was famous long ago
    For playing the free market violin
    On Desolation Row

    Dr. Bernanke, he keeps his world
    Inside a Federal tin cup
    But all his terminal patients
    They're trying to blow it up
    Now his nurse, some local loser
    She's in charge of the subprime hole
    And she also keeps the cards that read
    "Have Mercy on their Souls"
    They all play on penny whistles
    You can hear them blow
    If you lean your head out far enough
    From Desolation Row

    On the Street they've nailed the curtains
    They're getting ready for the feast
    The Phantom of the Markets
    A perfect image of a priest
    They're spoon feeding Hank Paulson
    To get him to feel more assured
    Then they'll kill him with their con men skills
    After poisoning him with their greedy words
    And the Phantom's shouting to skinny girls
    "Get Outa Here If You Don't Know
    Paulson's is just being punished for going
    To Desolation Row"

    Now at midnight the GOP led by McCain
    And their subhuman neocon crew
    Come out and round up everyone
    That knows more than they do
    Then they bring them to the factory
    Where the heart-attack machine
    Is strapped across their shoulders
    And then the market kerosene
    Is brought down from their GOP castles
    By insurance men who go
    Check to see that nobody is escaping
    To Desolation Row

    Praise be Roubini's Neptune
    The Titanic sails at dawn
    And everybody's shouting
    "Which Side Are You On?"
    And Elephant and Donkey Men
    Fighting in the captain's tower
    While calypso singers laugh at them
    And fishermen hold flowers
    Between the windows of the crashing market sea
    Where lovely mermaids flow
    And nobody has to think too much
    About Desolation Row

    Yes, I received the bullish newsletter
    (About the time the door knob broke)
    When you asked how my net was doing
    Was that some kind of joke?
    All these people that you mention
    Yes, I know them, they're quite lame
    I had to rearrange their faces
    And give them all another name
    Right now I can't read too good
    Don't send me no more newsletters no
    Not unless you mail them
    From Desolation Row

  • 3

    What about not passing it? Why not?

    Most congressmen wisely voted against the $700 billion bailout yesterday, thus putting the outgoing Bush administration in a precariously fragile position. If you rescue, the tax-payers will suffer badly; if you don't, the share-holders will lose out terribly. What next? Sell more bonds immediately? Will the East Asian nations and the Gulf States buy this time?

    The credit quakes in the West coast of Atlantic have been sending huge tsunamis to the East coast, engulfing one financial institution after another. At the same time, the after quake shocks are bashing the world economy into real impossible shape beyond recognition.

    Have I not cautioned before the imminent danger in the late 2006 when the US deficit was getting unmanageable and the Iraq war burned hundreds of billions of dollars? The world is now paying a very heavy toll due to the follies, arrogance, extravagance and mismanagement of the rich and powerful nations.

    Do the underdeveloped and developing countries deserve this awesome misfortune?

  • 4

    i NEVER put much stock in what technocrats, including justin fox, have to say when i'm trying to understand the big picture.

    PEOPLE SPOKE AGAINST THE BAILOUT, for the same reason: WE THE PEOPLE DO NOT TRUST YOU IN WASHNGTON, who have been in bed with wall street and corporate america,

    from two very different ideological perspectives:

    1) for libertarian repubs, there is an inherent conflict of interest between government and the people, which is the dumbest thing to believe as the government is the culmination of the people, and the bill favored the government.

    2)for progressive dems, there is an intrinsic conflict of interest between the rich and the poor in a capitalist system, and the bill favored the rich.

    now, its a matter of which side can harness the raw anger and energy of the people to their advantage.

    don't like capitalism? try some socialism. simple as that.

  • 5

    i NEVER put much stock in what technocrats, including justin fox, have to say when i'm trying to understand the big picture.

    PEOPLE SPOKE AGAINST THE BAILOUT, for the same reason: WE THE PEOPLE DO NOT TRUST YOU IN WASHNGTON, who have been in bed with wall street and corporate america,

    from two very different ideological perspectives:

    1) for libertarian repubs, there is an inherent conflict of interest between government and the people, which is the dumbest thing to believe as the government is the culmination of the people, and the bill favored the government.

    2)for progressive dems, there is an intrinsic conflict of interest between the rich and the poor in a capitalist system, and the bill favored the rich.

    now, its a matter of which side can harness the raw anger and energy of the people to their advantage.

    don't like capitalism? try some socialism. simple as that.

  • 6

    someone's snooping and sabotaging my blogging and emails... i know who you are and why you are sabotaging my activities, but you and your ilk will fail.

  • 7

    Justin, repeat 100 times:

    I must stop mocking Australian accents.

    or as it would sound if i said it:

    Aye Maaarst stop mawkin(g is optional) Orrrstrayan axe scents.

    Feel to return to panic and counting former Kings of the Universe leaping from Manhattan office buildings now.

    marcus.

  • 8

    It's not mockery, it's homage.

    Oh, and hey everybody: Marcus's TV show hits the airwaves (and the Internetwaves) in two weeks:
    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/notquiteart/

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