Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

They have a deal. But what deal?

It will be very interesting to see the actual legislative language of this bailout agreement that negotiators from Congress and the Treasury Department announced that they reached early this morning. Because from what they've said so far I still can't tell if Congress won or Treasury did.

What Treasury initially asked for was $700 billion, with no strings attached, with which it planned to go buy lots of troubled debt securities, mortgage-backed and otherwise.

People in Congress made lots of noise about the need for close oversight of the program, and I don't think that was ever a real sticking point for Treasury. But Congressional Democrats (and some Republicans) also insisted, inspired in at least some small part by a wave of counterproposals coming out of the economics community, on getting an equity stake in the companies that sold securities to Treasury.

If that equity stake is mandatory or near-mandatory, this could end up working out to be a recapitalization--at least a partial one--of the banking industry. Treasury would pay well over current fire-sale prices for the securities, thus helping troubled banks out of their balance-sheet problems, and taxpayers would get an ownership stake in return. This is an approach that has had some success in the past, most notably in Sweden in the early 1990s.

If taking the equity stake is completely at Treasury's discretion, then who knows how it's going to work.

Right now all we've heard is that the equity stake is part of the plan, but that it's probably not going to be applied in every last case. Until we know more about that, it's awfully hard to say what this bailout agreement amounts to.

Update: TIME's Massimo Calabresi thinks Paulson pretty much got what he wanted.

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  • 1

    The UK bit the bullet and chose the "Public" solution of nationalisation : the US twists and turns to find a "Private" or "For Profit" solution, albeit a genetically modified one.

    I propose a "Not for Loss" Capital Partnership within the framework of a US LLC.

    eg a WaMu Partnership would operate as follows:

    Step One: WaMu assets are put into the hands of a "Custodian".

    Step Two: existing WaMu Equity is exchanged for proportional "Units" in WaMu gross revenues eg billionths.

    Step Three: the WaMu "rump" now stripped of finance capital remains as "human capital" who receive an agreed proportional allocation of Units as "Managing Partners".

    Step Four: the Treasury introduces Public investment as necessary from a Fund dedicated to the purpose, and in exchange receives Units from the Investor allocation, thereby diluting existing WaMu Investors.

    Such a "Capital Partnership" is a simple, but radical, "hybrid" solution, and transcends the "Principal/Agency" conflict between the interests of owners and management which both the UK and US leave intact in different ways.

    The interests of Wamu Partnership management and WaMu investors - whether existing private or new public investors - are now aligned in a simple, radical, and, for those interested in that sort of thing (there are a lot of petrodollars out there), Islamically sound, way.

    It's not Rocket Science.

  • 2

    Wall Street and the Subprime Sting
    WilliamBanzai7

    Doyle Lonnegan: Your boss is quite a card player, Mr. Kelly; how does he do it?
    Johnny Hooker: He cheats.
    (From the Sting)

    "This Sucker Could Go Down" "W"

    It is ironic, that on the weekend that arguably
    the greatest confidence game of all time is
    reaching crescendo in Washington in the form of the
    mother of all
    Wall Street bailouts, Paul Newman, the star of The Sting,
    the greatest Confidence movie of all time, has passed on.
    In the Sting, Newman plays Henry "Shaw" Gondorf, a master con man who
    orchestrates the greatest con until September 2008.

    The Sting is chuck full of gangsters, incompetent cops, grifters,
    colorful schemers, con men, marks
    and shills, and keeps you on the edge of your seat straight though to its conclusion.
    Just like the Great Subprime Swindle of 2008, there are
    twists and turns galore, and you don't know how it
    is going to until the final 10 minutes.

    Welcome to the Great Subprime Swindle of 2008.
    We are barely into what could not be a more fitting sequel to
    the Sting.
    In this new episode, the Wall Street gang succeeds
    in conning Main Street USA out of its real
    estate/retirement nest egg by
    employing thousands of mortgage brokers, investment banking con men and
    dubious ponziesque securities called collateralized Debt
    Obligations and Credit Default Swaps. Like the Sting, the cast
    is chuck full of colorful characters like Alan (the "Maestro") Greenspan, Dick (the "Gorilla") Fuld,
    Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, James "Jimmy" Cayne
    Henry "Hank" Paulsen and
    Ben Bernanke (who will soon be known as "Father Moral Hazard"). What is it
    with gangsters, con men, bankers and
    nicknames? In the plot we get to watch innocent
    bystanders a dopey mark like
    AIG and now the American taxpayer, get conned and swindled out
    roughly $700 Billion USD, no one knows for sure. As
    in the Sting, the key stone cops (the SEC), show up
    long after the action has taken place. Unlike the Sting,
    there is no Shaw character to exact poetic justice against
    the Wall Street gang.

    One hundred years ago a man named Franklin Keyes, Esq.
    (you guessed it, a Wall Street lawyer) published a tract
    titled: "Wall Street Speculation, Its Tricks and Its Tragedies".
    In it he says: "Wall Street is dominated by some of the brainiest
    and shrewdest men in the country, natural born sharpers and schemers,
    and before the average man can get the better of them,
    except through the merest chance,
    he will have to eat brain food for a long time."

    Nothing could be further from the truth.

    Paul Newman, you're than man, rest in peace.

  • 3

    THE NOT SO SURPRISING SUBPRIME PERFORMANCE OF THE SEC
    WilliamBanzai7

    As we prepare to parse through the
    fine details of the new and improved
    TARP, we can expect some
    surprises. But there will is one non-surprise
    that won't be very surprising at all.
    The mother of all Federal interventions
    in the global financial markets will
    hardly make mention, if any at all, of the
    once feared United States Securities and Exchange
    Commission.

    You will recall that during the last
    mega Wall Street bust, the Dot.Com Bubble,
    the SEC was humbled by the
    aggressive enforcement tactics of
    Elliot Spitzer. This time around, under
    the feeble leadership of Chairman Cox,
    the SEC seems misguidedly obsessed
    with smoking out the evil doing
    short sellers. You know, the same guys
    who made the call on the opacity of the
    Lehman and AIG financial statements. The ones
    who guessed that something was cooking
    between Goldman and AIG.
    My theory is that the SEC,
    shamed by the shorts, wants payback.

    Last week, the FBI
    announced that it is investigating who else--
    AIG and Lehman, among many others.
    At the end of the week the SEC made its own announcement,
    it is terminating its voluntary
    supervision program for Wall
    Street investment Banks. Chairman
    Cox admitted that the program
    was flawed from the start. Duhhhh?

    There are no more investment
    banks to voluntarily submit to
    the SEC's supervision. So the
    whole silly operation is academic.
    But, the silly idea of a voluntary program with an
    opt out, that's right an opt out, reminds
    me of Mark Twain's definition of
    a banker: "A banker is a fellow
    who lends you his umbrella when the
    sun is shining, but wants it
    back the minute it begins to
    rain."

    Chairmen Cox's primary mission when he
    was appointed by W, was to neuter
    the the agency. Sage McCain, the
    then Chairman of the Senate Commerce
    Committee, in his infinite regulatory ferver,
    decided not to hold hearings on the
    appointment. And the result: Mission
    Accomplished!

    While the SEC continues
    its witch hunt for the wicked short selling
    evil doers, the real culprits, the
    Wall Street CEOs who lead the charge
    into leveraged subprime bliss and
    later lied publicly about their exposure
    to the toxic byproducts,
    are hiding out somewhere in
    the Northeast frontier of Tarpistan.
    And the once revered SEC, in all likelihood,
    will not be the ones smoking them out.

    R.I.P. (Regulatory Ineptitude Prevails) S.E.C.

  • 4

    The development of our Constitution in many areas was the result of compromise. Such compromise allowed some flexibility and checks and balances that contribute greatly to it remaining relevant for over 200 years. I just read the 116 page draft Recovery legislation and it seems to me to be workable in the same way ..,,,that is it includes flexibility and several forms of oversight that allows more reasoned and timely solution to the problem. It incorporates many of the thoughts I previously expressed in previous Curious Capitalist blog comments about the issues involved in the first 13 page draft. It gives the Treasury Secretary the authority to spend the $700 billion but in increments that would require additional verification based on what was done with the intitial drawdown of $250 billion. There are four different types of oversight reviewing the efficiency and economical conduct of the program, the effectivenss and impact of program results, the means to account for poor performance and fraud, and lessons learned on the actions/inactions of regulatory agencies. These oversight components allow more opportunity to change the program before all the $700 billion is spent. There are elements also encouraging lending entities to renegotiate troubled mortgages and some limited attempts to rein in CEO Golden Parachutes. The biggest obstacle will be if one of the key negotiators iare unable to compromise especially the House Republicans.

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