Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

Capitalism fails to collapse. What's up with that?

The apparent collapse of negotiations last night over the Paulson bailout led to a lot of fears that we'd witness a financial market massacre this morning. As Paul Krugman put it at 9:34 p.m.:

I don't even want to think about what tomorrow's TED spread will look like.

The TED spread--for those of you who haven't already learned to throw it about in everyday conversation--is the Official Financial Measure of the Panic of '07 and '08. It measures the interest-rate difference between three-month Treasuries and three-month Eurodollar LIBOR. LIBOR, the London Interbank Offered Rate, is what banks charge each other on short-term loans. It's also what a lot of adjustable-rate mortgages are linked to. Anyway, if LIBOR's a lot higher than the rate on Treasuries, it's seen as a sign of financial distress. And here's the thing: The TED spread, at 2.86 percentage points as of 10:45 a.m., is down so far today. Meanwhile, stocks opened down but not dramatically so.

What could this benign reaction possibly mean?

1) The stock market has been rising ever since President Bush declared this morning that "we are going to get a package passed." So maybe it's just that markets, in their infinite wisdom, remained pretty confident even after last night's fireworks that something's gonna happen. And now they're even more confident.

2) The shrinking in the TED spread is simply the result of the Fed and other central banks pouring piles more cash into the banking system overnight, and doesn't reflect a change in market sentiment at all.

3) Maybe we don't need the bailout, at least not in the this-must-happen-tomorrow-or-we'll-all-die sense of late last week. By acting to backstop money market mutual funds, and magically transforming the last two big investment banks standing--Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley--into banks, the government already addressed the two big panic button issues of last week. And now most all the remaining financial institutions that anybody might have serious worries about are within the banking system, where we have pretty well-established rules for dealing with insolvency and experienced civil servants who administer them. Not problem solved--nowhere near--but problem steered in a direction where it could conceivably be resolved without emergency legislation right now.

Update: Here's Felix's take. And Andrew Leonard--who, I feel strangely compelled to add, is Salon's excellent business/economics blogger--makes a really good point:

[I]f the market goes into a nose dive in the last hour of trading today, the insta-analysis will take another wild swing.

Yeah, I'd have to say my writings stood up to the test of time a whole lot better when they were all committed in the pages of a magazine that only came out once every two weeks.

Update 2: The market ends the day on an upswing. My insta-analysis stands. Until Monday at least.

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  • 1

    Justin,

    I'm starting to believe that we really don't need a Paulson bailout.

    But.

    We do need to put into place what Dad said below in a Roubini structured HOME type of vehicle.

    Fundamentally, we are still stuck on over-leveraged island. We have to take control and nationalize the housing industry. Yes, I know it is socialism. So what.

    Sure. Some people are going to take their lumps, but within 6 months of implementation, housing could find a floor. At that point the credit markets begin to work again.

    And finally. Regulate that freakin' CDS market!
    $52T in insurance is just ridiculous. The nature of capitalism is losses and gains. Insuring against every loss has gotten us to the point where the insurance vastly outstrips the underlying assets. It is just pure sillyness.

  • 2

    Ground Control to John McCain
    (David Bowie, Ground Control to Major Tom)
    Adapted by WilliamBanzai7

    Ground control to Captain John, Ground control to Captain John:
    Take your liver pills and put your bailout helmet on
    Ground control to Captain John: Commencing countdown engine's on
    Check ig-nition and may the GOP right be with you

    This is Commander Bush to Captain John, a huge mess you've really made!
    And the papers want to know which party's shorts you wear,
    Now it's time to leave and go debate if you dare

    This is John McCain to ground control, I'm sitting on the floor
    And I'm thinking in the most peculiar way
    And the campaign stars look very different today

    For here am I sitting in a hotel room, far above the world
    The TARP bailout is through and there's nothing I can do

    BRIDGE

    Though I'm passed one hundred thousand campaign miles, I'm feeling very still
    And I think my handlers don't know which way to go,

    Ground control to Captain John:
    Your campaigns dead, there's something wrong.
    Can you hear me Captain John?
    Can you hear me Captain John?
    Can you hear me Captain John? Can you ...

    Here am I sitting in my hotel room, far above the world
    The TARP bailout is through and there's nothing I can do....

  • 3

    we need a new measure of official panic..for a starter sum of a few million for essentials, i'd be happy to look into the feasibility of creating a bipartisan committee to make recommendations about it

  • 4

    I have some trash and junk, old crap from my Garage sitting out on the curb.

    I demand, IMMEDIATELY, that the Federal Government provide me with $1 Trillion to remove this junk(they can "own" it). If the Federal Government does NOT approve this, dire consequenses will proliferate.

    The Global Economy may fail, Weapons of mass destruction will fall from the sky, Barbar Bush will give you backrubs...HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE Things will happen

    I will expect the $1 Trillion delivered to me tomorrow AM, in small bills, 5, 10s, 20s are cool. OR ELSE!!!!

    Oh, ya, and none of this can be reviewed by any regulatory agency, committee or court of law.

    Thanks for playing. MAN, what am I gonna do with all that bling!!!

  • 5

    I work at a Fortune 500 Company.

    We are currently in the process of developing an inventory database of all our useless valueless assets.

    We need a good year. We are hoping that the Federal Government will spend Taxpayer dollars to take this crappola off our hands and make a HUGE bonus for our Fat Cat CEO.

    Thanks France...er, I mean Uncle Sam

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