Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

Welcome to my bank, WaMu customers!

Yeah, I'm sure all those concerns about the stability of the nation's financial system are overblown. So what if the government seized the country's largest depository institution after its souring mortgage portfolio triggered write-downs and losses and a lack of confidence that triggered more than $16 billion in deposit outflows in 10 days and insufficient liquidity to meet its obligations? It's not as though Jamie Dimon wasn't around to ride to the rescue. Private-sector solutions! Next time, it'll be Ken Lewis's turn again.

Here's a quick run-down of what JPMorgan Chase's purchase of Washington Mutual means if you're....

A WaMu customer. Nothing changes yet. Go to your favorite branch tomorrow, take some cash out of the ATM. If you were about to mail in a mortgage or credit card payment, still do that. All the phone numbers and web sites and account numbers stay the same for now. They'll give you plenty of heads up before anything changes. JPMorgan is really, really happy to be getting branches in states like California, Oregon, Washington and Florida, and a normal amount of happy to be getting branches elsewhere. On the conference call tonight, they said they think they'll only wind up closing about 10% of the combined branches.

Wondering how many more times the FDIC can afford to bail out banks. Good question. And one we don't have to worry about too much tonight since the FDIC flipped the bulk of WaMu to JPMorgan as soon as it took over. There'd been concern that the FDIC would run its deposit insurance fund dangerously low if it had to seize WaMu. The FDIC fund stood at $45 billion at the end of June (thanks to having to deal with IndyMac), and WaMu could have cost the FDIC up to $20 billion or $30 billion. Instead, JPMorgan is paying the FDIC $1.9 billion, a figure that was determined by a bidding process.

Thinking those big thoughts about the mortgage-related securities JPMorgan is taking onto its books. JPMorgan is taking on about $176 billion of WaMu home loans, and marking down almost $31 billion of that right off the bat. On the conference call, the JPMorgan execs said they'd had a lot of time to get into WaMu and evaluate what everything was worth and figure out how big a hit they'd wind up taking and if they could handle it. If you go here, click on "Presentation," and flip to page 17, you'll see that JPMorgan's worst-case scenario assumes home prices fall another 20% nationwide.

A Washington Mutual stockholder. I'm really sorry, but it looks like you're getting wiped out, along with some bondholders. All I can tell you is that you're not alone. Back in April, the private equity firm TPG, which employs a lot of really smart people, led a group of investors that plowed $7 billion of capital into WaMu. There are a lot of folks not having fun over this.

Barbara!

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  • 1

    I AM THE WaMu
    (to I am the Walrus, the Beatles)
    Adapted by WilliamBanzai7

    I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together.
    See how they run like hedge fund bums from a gun, see how they fly.
    I'm crying.

    Sitting on a write down, waiting for the FDIC to come.
    Corporation tee-shirt, stupid bloody Thursday.
    Man, you been a naughty bank, you let your loans go wrong.
    I am the eggman (woo), they are the eggmen (woo), I am the WaMu,
    Coo coo, kachoo.

    Mister FDIC man sitting
    Pretty little FRB men in a row.
    See how they fly like Bailouts in the Sky, see how they run.
    I'm crying.
    I'm cry, I'm crying, I'm cry, I'm crying.

    Mortgage Backed mustard, dripping from a dead dog's eye.
    Crabalocker John Mack, pornographic Greenspan,
    Boy, you been a naughty girl and you let your risk control knickers down.
    I am the eggman (woo), they are the eggmen (woo), I am the WaMu,
    Coo coo, kachoo.

    Sitting in an Seattle garden waiting for Hank's bailout to come.
    If the sun don't come, you get a tan from
    Standing in the Seattle rain.
    I am the eggman, they are the eggmen, I am the WaMu,
    Coo coo kachoo ka coo coo kachoo.

    Expert texpert CDS choking traders,
    Don't you think the joker laughs at you? (ho ho ho, he he he, ha ha ha)
    See how they smile like ABS bankers in a sty, see how they snide.
    I'm crying.

    Semolina mortgage Pilchard, climbing up the corporate Tower.
    Ignoramus penguins singing Hare Krishna finance.
    Man, you should have seen them kicking Paulson and Bernanke down.
    I am the eggman, they are the eggmen, I am the WaMu,
    Coo coo kachoo ka coo coo kachoo
    (rhythmical speaking along with juba's).
    Juba juba juba, juba, juba, juba, juba, juba, juba juba. Juba juba.....
    (speaking)

  • 2

    Barbara!

    If we aren't going to do the modified Paulson / Roubini plan by another name, then I vote that we just let the Fed, Treasury and Congress just do a piecemeal bailout. You get to the same result. As Paulson has already said the taxpayers are already on the hook whether they want to be or not. I'm not really sure what he means by that, but I think I am starting to get the picture.

  • 3

    williambanzai7,

    Well, here's another clue for you all:
    The WaMu was Paulson.

    Malcolm!

  • 4

    I don't get it. WaMu has been swearing up and down on a stack of Bibles for the last six months that it had more than adequate liquidity. Yet it's apparently been on the FDIC problem bank list for a quarter, and now this. What happened to that liquidity? Have conditions changed that radically, or is it just fraud?

  • 5

    Very good Malcolm!!!!!

  • 6

    Malcolm,

    They are the AIG men

  • 7

    There is an alternative to this $700 billion bailout. (Which, by the way...is tantamount to fascism) Lyndon Larouche proposed, over a year ago the Homeowner and Bank Protection Act of 2007. He has been soliciting support on a state and local level since that time. Some of the key provisions are: 1)Congress must establish a Federal agency to place federal and state chartered banks under protection.Freeze and/or restructure mortgages;write off all of the speculative debt obligations of mort. backed securities and derivatives etc.; 2)Freeze foreclosures; 3)State Governors implement and administer the program. This is a VERY cursory overview of the plan.But it follows the basic tenets of our constitution.

  • 8

    Curmudgeon, as an owner of a gazillion WaMu shares, I have more than a passing interest in what's gone on there.

    First, its management, as with CitiGroup, has consistently underperformed/miscalculated for years and years. And management DOES matter.

    But I had a fair amount of cash to put somewhere, and I felt I had too large a portion of my portfolio in the great companies, such as MO and WBK and BAC, so I swallowed hard and put a lot into WaMu during 2003-2006.

    Then they disclosed, piece-by-piece, how much they put in alt-prime and subprime mortgages and derivatives, and derivatives of derivatives. As the stock crashed, it became clear that even THEY didn't know what they had. So now, with all-electronic shares, I have not even their certificates to paper the heating room with.

  • 9

    Nicholas Loscalzo - Something somewhat similar to your Lyndon Larouche plan for the financial system has been tried,and failed. Think the old USSR.

    The plan establishes centralized, socialized banking, and it doesn't work. Why? Because it requires government to exercise exquisite judgment, which government is famously ill-equipped for. For example, just how do you define "speculative debt obligations" so a clerk can administer the plan? Or, if you freeze foreclosures, how to do set up the rules to keep the unscrupulous from essentially becoming squatters, occupying valuable properties without paying a cent?

  • 11

    I believe someone needs to address the' PONZI Scheme' that was created with Health care finance.
    NCFE, National Century Financial Enterprises, Inc., was a private Healthcare FINANCIAL company, the largest 'private' bankruptcy and dubbed by Federal Prosecutors in Columbus Ohio 'larger than Enron'.

    NCFE: Death-Dealing Side of the Bubble
    by John Hoefle
    As a private company not required to make public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, much about NCFE remains shrouded in secrecy. But one can tell a lot by looking at its board, which consisted of four of the company's founders and two executives of J.P. Morgan Chase, which controls 16% of the company through its Beacon Group III private equity fund. In addition, Morgan Chase and Bank One are trustees for NCFE's bond trusts.

  • 12

    I believe someone needs to address the' PONZI Scheme' that was created with Health care finance.
    NCFE, National Century Financial Enterprises, Inc., was a private Healthcare FINANCIAL company, the largest 'private' bankruptcy and dubbed by Federal Prosecutors in Columbus Ohio 'larger than Enron'.
    NCFE: Death-Dealing Side of the Bubble
    by John Hoefle
    As a private company not required to make public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, much about NCFE remains shrouded in secrecy. But one can tell a lot by looking at its board, which consisted of four of the company's founders and two executives of J.P. Morgan Chase, which controls 16% of the company through its Beacon Group III private equity fund. In addition, Morgan Chase and Bank One are trustees for NCFE's bond trusts.

  • 13

    This is not the first national real estate workout.
    Someone needs to bite the bullet and figure out what to do about the FWMDs. The CDSs that nominally amount to trillions of dollars of liability. The CDSs sank Bear, Lehman and AIG and they are still trading. These so called risk management tool are financial napalm. Think about all the hedge fund counter parties. Its a form of indirect, unfunded everage. If the bomb blows, CDSs are the fuse.

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