Lehman and the other purveyors (or is it victims?) of financial kryptonite
From now on, this blog will be devoted entirely to answering questions from Bryan from Houston. The latest:
If the FNM/FRE deal was so successful, what is happening to Lehman? Further, who else is at risk still?
To me, this financial kryptonite hardly seems contained and the super powers of the Fed and Treasury seems rather impotent right now.
What's happening to Lehman is the same thing that happened to Fannie and Freddie, and IndyMac: Their assets (real estate-related assets in particular) are worth whole lot less than they seemed to be a year or six months ago. And when that happens at a financial institution that's relatively small (Lehman) or heavily concentrated in the particular sector that has gone bust (Frannie, IndyMac), and/or skimpily capitalized (Frannie), people start wondering about the continued solvency of the institution.

The view from my office of Lehman HQ
Lehman has been working pretty aggressively to address these solvency concerns by raising new money from investors back in June and selling off assets now. Thanks to that and the fact that the Fed now lends money to investment banks, I don't get the sense that it's in immediate danger of a Bear-style run on the bank (not that I would know if it were). But investors aren't very impressed with its future earnings prospects, and the regulators appear to be looking for ways (thanks, Felix) not to bail it out if it did come to that. "You need a way to let big financial institutions, whether they're depositary institutions or not, fail," Hank Paulson told me a couple months ago. "Because you need that market discipline."
Who else is at risk? Well, the one everyone has been talking about is Washington Mutual, which is down another 25% so far this morning (Lehman stock is up slightly after its earnings report and conference call). I have no idea if WaMu is actually at big risk of failure, but I figure there the government would also just let that happen--that is, let the FDIC take over and bail out insured depositors while letting other creditors squirm. This might wipe out the $45 billion FDIC insurance fund, but my old friend Bert Ely just reminded me that the fund is an accounting fiction and the loss would be made up by charging banks higher insurance fees over the coming years.
"It becomes an issue only if the banking industry can't pay the bill," Ely said. Ely has studied the banks that have failed so far and is convinced that they were all especially risky outliers. If he's wrong, and people start worrying seriously about the solvency of Citi, BofA, Goldman and Morgan Stanley, then maybe we get a Sweden-style government takeover of almost the entire financial industry, with a price tag in the hundreds and hundreds of billions (at least). But we're not there yet.
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1
It seems to me that Lehman has been working pretty aggressively to save Dick Fuld's job, otherwise they would have taken anything they could get from the Korea Development Bank.
But are the assets of these institutions worth a lot less? Or is it that they simply can't be priced? Or that their price at this time doesn't reflect their price at maturity? Granted, to a financial institution these are pretty much the same (they have to carry the current price on their books), but they don't necessarily reflect reality. In other words, the trading price isn't always the underlying value.
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2
I think the assets are in fact worth a lot less than people thought they were a year ago. Obviously at some point the mark-to-market prices (and even the mark-to-model prices) will overshoot to the downside. But a lot of people on Wall Street (Steve Schwarzman springs to mind) were saying early this year that the price downturn had already overshot. I think they were full of it.
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3
After Freddie and Fannie, now another giant Lehman in the fall.
Lehman Brothers is going, perhaps would be gone in the not so distant future. It is virtually irredeemable, and moving fast on the verge of collapse. Is this not scary? Does it not send a chill down the spine of global financial institutions?
A number of long standing and well established banks have gradually "fallen" one after another, not unlike dominos. Sheer instant bailing out is not a tangible or sustainable solution, for it could only worsen the precarious economic situation by hiding its decadence.
The world should be ready (albeit most unwillingly) for yet another bashing of financial storm, except this time the enormous scale and drastic impact could be beyond anybody's imagination.
(Tan Boon Tee) -
4
Justin,
Next question. It seems to me that our use of the slow leak technique is NOT working.
I hate to say it, but it appears that the government would be far better off to just establish a SUPERFUND of sorts to bail out institutions which are either a) too big to fail, b) too interconnected to fail or c) failure would bring about damage to the concept of US currency being backed by less than "Full Faith and Credit."
Since it seems like we are playing a game of Texas Hold'em with the short stack, is there any real danger in going for a long punt (essentially just putting up ante and folding) till we receive a better hand?
Thanks for the recognition on the questions, but again, my curiousity is driven by my concern for my holdings in US Savings bonds, my 401K, and my stock market holdings. I'm not getting killed, but systemic danger is some pretty scary stuff (even when you're in your early 30s).
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