Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

New column: Bob Shiller's plan to fix things

After a long summer hiatus, I finally have a column in the magazine again, in the issue of TIME with Sarah Barracuda on the cover. It begins:

Economist Robert Shiller has a new book out. You'll be thrilled to learn that it doesn't contain any warnings about a looming market crash. Well, unless you count that bit about the "train of catastrophes" that might ensue if current efforts to stabilize the financial system fail. But that's not really a prediction.

Considering the Yale professor's recent publishing history, this is quite a relief. In March 2000, as stock prices soared to record levels, Shiller released his first general-audience book. Titled Irrational Exuberance, a phrase borrowed from a 1996 Alan Greenspan speech, it made the case that stock-market investors tend to go mad every few years--and that they were at the time in the grips of perhaps their worst psychotic episode ever.

That month, stock prices started to fall. The slide continued for 2 1/2 years. Then, for the second edition of Irrational Exuberance, published in February 2005, Shiller added a chapter on real estate. His argument: House prices had followed the stock market into a flight of fancy that was bound to end badly. Read more.

I'll have a post later with more from my interview with Shiller.

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  • 1

    Continuous workout mortgages? A derivatives market? Interesting ideas, but there are just too many parties with a vested interest in home values always increasing, present evidence to the contrary. I don't see any means of bringing that under control.

  • 2

    "An active market in house-price futures and options" to be manipulated by the same geniuses who brought us the current housing and financial crisis. No thanks.

  • 3

    Curmudgeon, Indpendent

    I say why not. Granted, I own $400k in realestate here in Houston, but it's got to be better than the status quo in terms of transparency.

    In fact, I suspect that more specifically it will create an additional incentinve for Americans to diversify further and result in more efficient housing markets and ultimately real estate utilization. Something which is desperately needed in this country for a populus so averse to taxes. Do people really want to cut taxes or not? Or is it just more schizoparanoid delusions at work?

    And I'm not saying that Gramm is right and Americans are 'whiners' but I think there is validity to the idea that many, sadly, don't want to be grounded in reality.

  • 4

    Bryan,

    I'm not sure what reality is. But I sure wouldn't like it to be defined by under regulated investment banks and hedge funds bent on gaming the system.

  • 5

    Indy,

    But won't it get manipulated anyway? I don't see their hand as invisible right now but a deliberate influence. At least with transparency, you can see the effects of the investments banks and hedge funds.

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