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Can an "all of the above" energy policy really work?

Bryan from Houston writes:

How about some elucidation on what both sides believe in terms of energy policy? Are the two sides really that far apart? Sounds like everybody is advocating the kitchen sink method...drill, nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas/hybrid cars....why doesn't Congress just do it already?

Bryan's right that both campaigns sometimes sound like Paris Hilton on energy policy, which isn't a bad thing. McCain's "Lexington Project" on energy is even subtitled "An All of the Above Energy Solution."

Read through McCain's and Obama's energy platforms and you find lots of the same buzzwords (cap and trade, clean coal, next-generation biofuels, renewable energy, energy efficiency, etc.). But you pretty quickly come across a crucial difference: Where McCain leans toward offshore drilling and expanded use of nuclear power, Obama leans toward conservation. Oh, and Obama wants to give people a tax rebate paid for by a windfall tax on oil companies, while McCain wants (or wanted; you don't hear him talk about it so much anymore) a federal gas tax holiday.

My own sense (influenced by one too many conversations with Amory Lovins) is that saving energy through conservation is cheaper (and thus more economically efficient) than producing energy through new deepwater drilling and nuclear plants. Then again, conservation has its limits, so conservation and drilling and nukes would seem to make sense. All of the above, in other words.

There is a complication on the oil-drilling front, though. I'll let Austan Goolsbee (writing for Fortune back in 2005, before he was Obama's economic adviser) explain:

Most oil that was cheap to produce from the U.S. was used up long ago. Today the largest potential sources of oil in North America, be they the shale deposits in Utah and Wyoming, the oil sands of Alberta, or the deep-water offshore pools in the Gulf of Mexico, are all much more expensive than the cheap oil coming out of the Middle East. Our average production costs in some places are as high as $15 per barrel. Cost estimates for places like Iran and Saudi Arabia go as low as $1.50 per barrel.

If U.S. demand (which is the largest of any country in the world) falls substantially, it will drive down oil prices. When prices are low, many U.S. oilfields become too expensive to keep open. That is why our lowest share of foreign oil imports in the past three decades came in the early 1980s--when oil shocks drove prices to record highs and encouraged development of the higher-cost U.S. sources.

Without question, driving down oil prices by reducing our demand could reduce the total amount of money going to the Middle East. We should be aware, though, that this reduction will cause far greater damage to the world's high-cost producers of oil, such as those in the U.S. than it does to OPEC, and there is little chance it will reduce the share of our oil that comes from abroad.

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  • 1

    I second you on this, Justin. Sarah Palin's speech last night really gave me the fits when she tried to show she knew something about energy policy. I think she is trying to put us back 30 years instead of looking towards the future. Maybe that's where Alaska is but I don't think that's where we want to be as a country.

  • 2

    "Then again, conservation has its limits, so conservation and drilling and nukes would seem to make sense."

    Don't tell us that renewables (wind, solar, biofuels....) have no future. By the time the dubious rewards of "Drill here! Drill now!" are realized, renewables are likely to be a robust component of the energy mix.

  • 3

    I'm not dismissing renewables. There's just not as dramatic a contrast between Obama's and McCain's statements when it comes to renewables (although Obama does attach dollar figures to some of his alternative-fuel plans, while McCain does not).

  • 4

    Justin:

    There might not be a dramatic contrast between Obama's and McCain's statements on renewables, but there is when it comes to voting: http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/08/23/mccain-energy-summit/

    (thinkprogress is admittedly a left leaning site, so let me try to bring this to the center a bit).

    It appears that McCain is unwilling to create tax preferences for, or mandate requirements for renewables, or restrictions. Rather, if he wants to government to get involved, he'd rather it get involved in proven methods (in this case drilling, nuclear). Let the other methods develop as they will on their own.

    whereas Obama wants to create tax incentives for renewables and place restrictions or taxes on more common, dirtier technology.

    I don't think either of them are against an all of the above approach. Rather McCain seems against funding for, or mandating reliance upon unproven technologies, while Obama believes funding these emerging technologies is the better path.

  • 5

    MBirch,

    That is an excellent observation. Working quite heavily in a tangentially related field, I can tell you that many companies are moving toward developing alternative fuels from an economic standpoint. In part, some of the old industries are regulated technologies and have limited upside potential, and in yet other ways, it is good strategy.

    Justin's reference to the blurb by Goolsbee brings up an interesting point. Recall that as prices spiked up to astronomical levels we got to a point of demand destruction. In economic terms, it is that point at which the cost of something exceeds its value to the consumer. The very same phenomenon will happen with regard to oil supply. When the cost of retrieving it from ever more difficult places exceeds its value or the cost of alternative fuels, it will cease to be sought after.

    Ultimately, what this means is that government should neither unduly subsidize nor tax the energy markets. In the end, it seems to me that a free energy market would automatically drift toward the most efficient balances of capital expenditure based upon expected return.

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