Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

Might I suggest instead talking about the median wage?

Tomorrow the federal minimum wage goes up 70 cents to $6.55 an hour. Rather than join in either side of the outrage—the people who think $6.55 is still way low (including, ostensibly, the 23 states with higher floors) or the people who think the minimum wage is an unforgivable distortion of supply and demand that leads to greater unemployment (paging Milton Friedman)—I'm going to ignore the minimum wage altogether.

Why? I just don't see the relevance. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, last year 75.9 million Americans were paid at hourly rates (58.5% of all wage and salary workers). Of those, 267,000 got the federal minimum wage. That's probably a lower number than you're used to hearing, but only because folks tend to also count the 1.5 million people who make less than the minimum wage—always be generous to your waitresses. Still, we're only talking about 1.7 million people, and we don't really know what 1.5 million of those are actually taking home at the end of the day.

So I propose instead looking at the median wage made by the 75.9 million people getting paid by the hour. If you dig through this report (it's a PDF), you see that, nationally, that's $11.95.

Let's take that, figure on a 40-hour workweek... and come up with an annual pre-tax total of $24,856. Now let's flip over to the 2008 federal poverty guidelines, and see that $24,856 clears the poverty hurdle for a family of four—by a whopping $3,656. Keep in mind that we're using the median wage, which means half of the people we're talking about make less.

Maybe I just shy from a good ideological fight, but I kind of think that's the thing we should be discussing.

UPDATE
: I answer some of the questions commenters have asked in this post here.

Barbara!

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  • 1

    I agree, this is worrying, especially if we take the old-timey view that a single 40 hour a week wage-earner should be able to support a family of four.

    Que "the two income trap" etc.

    (median household income is $48,201.00 if I believe wikipedia)

  • 2

    Is "median" same as "mean" or is it calculated a different way? Even that may be too simplistic. I'd like to see a histogram.

  • 3

    mean is the average.

    median is the middle number of all the numbers laid out in order. so if i laid out

    1 25 33 44 100
    as a series of sample wages..

    40.6 (1+25+33+44+100)/5 = mean (or average)
    33 would be the median one as it's the one in the middle.

    none would be the mode as they all appear once.

  • 5

    Yes, the problem with the arithmetic mean is that the left side of the distribution has a demarcation point (you can't make less than zero), while the right side is theoretically unlimited. In practice, specialists making a high hourly rate shift the mean away from being a good representation of the group as a whole. And that's what we really want to do - summarize the income of the group with a single number that is meaningful.

  • 6

    You missed the most important question. How many of those hourly wage workers are in a family of four?
    Yes, 50% make less than $11.95 an hour, but a great many of them are probably not in a family of four either.
    If you are making about $12 a hour and are 22 years old and living with mom, that's alot of play money.
    But, if you are single with three kids, $12 is likely not enough.
    I'd imagine that the median wage would likely be a couple of bucks higher if it weren't for illegal immigration suppressing wages.

  • 7

    Great post. Hope to see more along these lines.

  • 8

    "Is median same as mean... I'd like to see a histogram."

    What kind of person knows the word "histogram" but not what a median is? Obviously, a median is the thing that divides lanes in a road, and a histogram is what a mommy gets on her tummy. Duh.

    Note that the poverty line for a single person is $10,400. A median hourly worker makes more than double that amount.

    Also note that as soon as a person or family falls below the poverty line, they immediately qualify for additional free goods and services.

  • 9

    I would expect that median families, or those making under median single income are more likely to rely on a second income.

    Additionally is this the median wage for full time workers or all workers? I would venture that if part time wages are affecting this graph that it would be skewed lower than what might be reasonable.

    Either way the median single income family is struggling...

  • 10

    If you're interested in this stuff, cut up a lot of good ways (and tracked over time), might I suggest you consult 'The State of Working America' put out by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). Of course, simpily consulting their work is, sadly (as a commentary on the state of our ideological debates), the very definition of not shying away from a good ideological fight.

  • 11

    So if you're making less than the median wage and are supporting a couple of kids your spouse should work, too. Even 2 people making the minimum wage could still support 2 children according to your numbers. The problem only arises when you have single parents (which the Right likes to complain about) or if you expect one person to support a stay-at-home spouse and 2 kids (which the Left does).

    Malcolm!

  • 12

    Thanks for this discussion Barbara. As others have noted, each data point has it's own set of problems. Actually, the math does not have any problems, it is that you need a lot of different calculations to be able to develop an accurate picture of societal conditions. Your update certainly helped in this. One additional data grouping that would be of interest is a compilation of the trends in median income over the last 25 years, adjusted for inflation, mirrored against the median cost of living for the same period. I'll try to find that data.

    M

  • 13

    Lo' and behold, here's the source of almost all data .. the census.

    This page is 2000-2004. Note the median and mean for family income DECLINED over that period. A lot of data here, for those inclined to work through it all.

    http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/MYPTable?_bm=y&-qr_name=ACS_2004_EST_G00_MYP3_15&-geo_id=D&-ds_name=D&-_lang=en

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