Barbara to the economy: Bring it
I was doing an interview for our annual What's Next issue this morning when Fed Chair Ben Bernanke went to the Hill to talk about the economy. I'm just now catching up with what he had to say. Lots of good thinking on how crappiness in the credit markets and write-downs at big banks have increased "the downside risks to growth." Here's the punchline:
At present, my baseline outlook involves a period of sluggish growth, followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt.
But he's not ruling out more rate cuts:
Although the baseline outlook envisions an improving picture, it is important to recognize that downside risks to growth remain, including the possibilities that the housing market or the labor market may deteriorate to an extent beyond that currently anticipated, or that credit conditions may tighten substantially further. The FOMC will be carefully evaluating incoming information bearing on the economic outlook and will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.
So, here's my question for all of you: Is anyone out there hoping for a recession?
I'm ready. I say let's do this thing and let's do it now.
Recessions are not-nice times. People lose their jobs. They don't get to buy a bunch of new stuff. I get that.
But I rent an apartment in Manhattan, and if there's ever any chance of being able to buy one, we're going to need a real hiccup in GDP. A lot more Wall Streeters are going to have to be fired.
In any economic situation there are winners and there are losers. Plenty of people profit during recession, and I hope to be one of them. A recession is going to happen eventually anyway -- hence the business cycle -- so why not sooner rather than later? I'm getting a little bored by all the will-she-or-won't-she theater, anyway.
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1
As a Manhattan apartment-owner, I just want to say that something about this analysis is deeply flawed.
Not so sure what, though.
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2
But didn't you hear the man? "sluggish growth, followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt." So let's do the math: growth + more growth = no recession, ever! Woohoo!
You see, there are no more business cycles. They figured out that if we just skip the placebos and keep taking the pill, we can make sweet economic love forever. (And no more Pre-Monaterist Syndrome, either!)
Now we just have to make sure Bernanke never, ever skips a day... or we'll all be having a very serious conversation in three months.
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3
Thank you for two delightful posts, Barbara.
As someone who stayed in his condo, and sat on some cash, I've got to admit I've been eyeing the (OC) real-estate listings on craigslist.
So I can smile at "let's do this thing" even if I wouldn't go quite that far.
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4
"They don't get to buy a bunch of new stuff. "
This might very well include new issues of magazines with interviews about What's Next.....
This is like playing russian roulette with a shotgun filled with buckshot..you're gonna be suprised by what takes a hit...
So careful for what ya wish for there..
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5
oo and this is a good quote in that guardian article..
"It would help see off the environmental nonsense that has become so popular among the chattering classes" - O'leary
Wow - where to begin?
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6
As a college student slated to graduate in a year or so, I'm hoping for the slowdown to last as long as humanly possible. I'm in an in demand global field (chemical engineering) that has to maintain salaries competetive at a global level. The tanking dollar and sluggish housing market means I could make out quite well if this lasts a little longer.
Some of us will win.
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7
"Bring on (the) recession". That is an opinion one would expect only from an individual who is a maschochist (not likely) or who has never really suffered in one (more likely). Loss of jobs...loss of homes...interrupted education...families breaking up over economic crises...even domestic violence catalyzed by a recession's up-close-and-personal impact... How wicked to ask for these collateral effects. But to be fair, there are creatures who do quite well as the weak fall, populations are stressed, and 'habitat' changes. They are called vultures.
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8
Recessions hurt. I do understand that. I lost my job in 2002 when Mutual Funds magazine folded. When times are good and daytraders are in vogue financial services companies buy a lot of ads. And when they're not... alas.
But I don't have a problem with anyone thinking that people who profit while others suffer are vultures. I can follow that logic. I just hope that if that's what you think, then you felt the same way during the boom years. That in 2005, you looked at mortage brokers selling no-doc loans and Wall Street banks selling collaterized debt obligations with no regard for quality, and called them vultures, too. There are always people out there trying to take advantage. I'd just rather wait until a recession -- which is a normal and unavoidable part of any economy -- to set me up to benefit. I can't seem to bring myself to be predatory all on my own.
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9
Perhaps I was unkind. Sorry. If you lost a job, your observations have more depth. I lost three (3) jobs in the period 2002-2005 after never having lost one in the previous 28 years of my working life. They were in manufacturing and this was during the 'boom' (?!??) Am getting ready to lose a house in another state I couldn't sell over 2 years (foreclosure); the one I live in now is shaky. I lost what was a decent stock portfolio in the 1987 crash and never really was able to shave aside enough funds to get back in. Yes, I did feel the same way about 'vultures' in the mid 2000's boom years so at least this writer was consistent.
On first reading, your observation looked a little too pleased about the recession. However I see I may have misread you and brought in some bias due to tough times on this end. I stand corrected.
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