Ben Bernanke gets all Keynesian on us

It's clear that the Republicans aren't reading Terry Goodkind novels...

Neither am I. Pray tell, what happens in Terry Goodkind novels that is relevant to this tale?

I'm still pretty skeptical that anything can be done legislatively that will work in the short term. And yet (*sigh*) SO much legislation is knee jerk response anyway. Oh well, like I did during the last recession, I'll just tighten my belt and wait for my various retirement accounts to start showing returns again.

Well written and funny. Another problem with the supply siders is that their philosophy can only work for so long until the budget deficits catch up to them. Theoretically, the increased revenue from job growth was supposed to outweigh the lost revenue from tax cuts. This never works in practice, however, so supply side economic policies always seem to be accompanied by massive budget deficits. On a similar note, it seems Bernanke thinks that the U.S. government also has short term thinking. After all, he doesn't trust them to reign in spending in order to offset the budget effects of any long term stimulus package or tax cut. I don't really blame him; when has either party actually shown it can reduce spending?

since I'm too lazy to read all the testimony, did Bernecke make it clear that the stimulus needs to be on the "demand" side? Because if he didn't, that leaves open the possibility for something completely stupid, like a temporary reduction in the capital gains tax.

Bernecke still seems to be under the impression that "interest rate cuts"="stimulus", and repeating the same mistake that Greenspan made in 2001 --- lowering interest rates at a point where there is no demand for new investment capital. In 2001, the problem was an oversupply of inventory and productive capacity; right now the problem is paralyzing uncertainly in the financial markets thanks to the mortgage derivatives disaster.

From the testimony:

"fiscal measures that involve long lead times or result in additional economic activity only over a protracted period, whatever their intrinsic merits might be, will not provide stimulus when it is most needed."

My reading of that is he would see something like a cap gains tax reduction as inappropriate.

Justin wrote:

"Neither am I. Pray tell, what happens in Terry Goodkind novels that is relevant to this tale?"

He's a objectivist who writes fantasy novels featuring "wizard's rules."

Rule 1: "People are stupid."

Justin...
thanks for the translation from FedSpeak to american english.

Here's my problem... IIRC, we just got a report that says inflation is on the rise. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but the whole purpose of the Fed was to act as a brake on the economy when inflation rears its ugly head. And while I was initially supportive of a stimulus package, the problems with the economy are structural -- temporary stimulus can delay the recession, but it can't prevent it.

The one thing I give Reagan credit for (sort of) is riding out the recession that occurred during his first couple of years in office -- the economy was completely out of whack as a result of the oil embargo in the seventies from which it never recovered. Doesn't it make more sense (at least economically) to ride this one out?

I think it is too late. Even those of us like me who are upper middle class (in my case income 90K+ and I'm just a single person) are too far in debt and too scared of the future to add to the consumer "machine" that supposedly drives 70% of the U.S. economy. The "solution" to the recession of 2001 (and yes, it started before 9/11) was to "spend, spend, spend". Sorry, by now, with all the economic bubbles and manipulations over the last 10-15 years, I'm "spent" out.

If I get $800 back from a tax "stimulus" package, the last thing I'm going to do is spend it.

Everyone has a crazy idea to save the housing market/economy; here's mine.

The big fear driving restricted immigration is job competition. The reality is we're bleeding jobs and will continue to do so. The future for job growth is housing and infra-structurte, no more weapons which do nothing for the country.

I don't want to be in the business of selling citizenship but what is needed is increased demand -- more buyers in the housing market. Perhaps we create a path to citizenship that's streamlined and easy-- buy a house with a substantial down payment, say 40%, (maybe send kids here to college to live in those houses) and hold them for 5 or more years. This will help sop up the housing glut, bail out the banks to a degree, spur demand for still more infra-structure and create jobs.

This is written b/c you can & must handle the truth.

Rule #1 - identify the problem - so you can confront & fix the problem.

Rule #2 - see Rule #1.

Without the knowledge of the truth, one cannot make a proper decision b/c the decision is based on disinformation.

The Golden Goose is all but dead.

IFF it walks like a duck, has webbed feet, & sounds like a duck - let's investigate to insure it is a duck - as it may be a goose!

Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs) are something they are NOT - FRNs are NOT MONEY.

Money is gold & silver b/c the law says so!!!!

I measure the success of a society by the divorce rate.

The #1 reason attributed to divorce is money (financial woes).

The #2 reason attributed to divorce is cheating.

The FRN has been devaluated by > 90%.

Gold is reaching new highs against the FRN.

Consequently, prices continue to sky rocket.

Oil is tied directly to the price of gold.
As gold increases oil will follow.

Unless the American people break their dependency on oil & the Federal Reserve System immediately - the world is doomed.

Whether it is the housing bubble, or foreign nations cashing out the bonds - in an frantic attempt to save what little they have while fleeing from the worthless dollar, or the derivative mkts., the house of cards will crash & burn very soon.

The Attorneys sold US out to the banksters -
who inflated the money - which caused stress on the family - which destroyed the American Dream - that each succeeding generation would be better off than the previous generation.

Americans work more hrs. than other industrialized nations, have one of the the WORST health care system (SICKO), a high child mortality rate, poor education & are NOT getting the bang for the buck that is given to the govt.

Americans police the world for the corporations & to insure the people are in a constant state of fear, poverty & slavery.

By working the American People to death, the American People do NOT have the time to think - thus insuring the scam will continue!

Americans are heavily tax & have nothing to show for the heavy taxation. Can you spell rip-off?

GEORGE W. BUSH & co. has spent America into the toilet, & mortgaged our children's future.

The country is in a shambles - the roads, the bridges, tunnels are in disrepair.

I see our children taking jobs in the military, b/c there are no jobs at home.

This is b/c the manufacturing jobs were outsourced to foreign nations with cheap labor & in so doing America went from the largest creditor nation - to the largest debtor nation. YES it does matter!

The total system is a lie based on fraudulent funds that are masquerading as money.

A society with weights & measures that are UNJUST, is an UNJUST SOCIETY doomed to fail.

We are witnessing the death of America.

We don't have money, we don't own our property, our vote does not count, our information is manipulated, controlled, & programmed, our food, air & water is tainted, contaminated, & polluted, our free energy energy & medical advances have been withheld - cancer was cured in 1930's, our children are taken at birth & given unsafe vaccinations & NOW we have an epedemic known as Autism, our children are taken & sent to govt. run schools where they are brainwashed & ill equipped to compete in the world, we have unlawful taxes extorted from All of US everyday, I'm concerned that my children will be taken & sent to foreign lands to kill, harm & maim, innocent people & eventually die, in an unlawful fraudulent police action in an effort to support the industrial, military, congressional, banking cartel that has destroyed the American Dream, which Dwight D. Eisenhower warned US about.

There is one saving grace - the American People learn of the truth regarding the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports, which is the piggy bank of the govt. - it is where the funds are hidden from view & invested into the stock mkt.

Once the American People realize that the govt. has stolen 100s of trillions of funds & hidden them in these accts. - then & only then will the American People have the resources to escape the death of a nation!

There is remedy, a cure since the defacto govt. is NOT the dejure lawful govt. of We the People. The govt. has been usurped by the Federal Reserve Bank from Se the People in an unlawful, illegal act.

The govt. is NOT the govt. - it is a business a corporation, masquerading as a govt. - which is another fraud with NO STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS attached.

Please WAKE UP America - as you are witnessing the DEATH of America & all your dreams!

It is about TIME someone wrote it like it is!

I am TDC Katman ARR, sui juris.
http://www.iff-ifoundfreedom.com
Shoot trespassers, hang traitors, problem solved!
IFF = identify friend or foe.

I've been wrestling with the seeming idiocy of the evolving $145 billion taxpayer stimulus proposal. Then on Saturday 19 January the New York Times ran a story about the proposed tax rebate under the headline “Economists Debate the Quickest Cure”. One of the notable elements of the story was a table showing how folks had anticipated spending the 2001 tax rebate. The majority answer: reducing debt. The conventional wisdom says this is bad because debt reduction does nothing to stimulate the economy. If this were in fact anticipated today, it would clearly seem to run counter to proferred purpose of the rebate to stimulate the economy. Unless, of course, the rebate isn't really about priming the pump of consumer spending.

Indeed, maybe economic stimulus isn't exactly what the wiser architects of the plan are really concerned about: pumping $70 billion (about 50% of the total) into the repayment of credit card debt would probably do quite a bit, short term at least, to shore up the commercial paper market (which is where credit card receivables tend to end up). More significantly, it could very well be successful in pushing off any collapse of the commercial paper market until next year at the earliest.

Why would I even worry about a collapse of the commercial paper market? One of the less talked about sides of the CDO market is how much of this leveraged debt spawned the creation of asset backed CP; this paper represents a sizeable portion of the holdings for many money market funds. If the CDO crisis broadens (as some predict it will), it is easy to imagine an increase the default of the asset backed CP associated with CDO's. (Scattered stories have already featured instances of this happening, notably with certain governmental investment funds.) While technically the problem is more likely to be one of liquidity than solvency, it is not unreasonable to imagine that once major money market funds start “breaking the buck” that there could be a disasterous panic which creates a massive liquidity crisis in the CP market overall. Since CP backed by credit card receivables represent another major portion of the CP market, a temporary fix to this part of the market may temporarily diffuse or, at worst, diminish the money market landmine.

While I recognize that I could be completely wrong on this, it is nonetheless interesting to postulate that this rebate proposal might actually be helpful at delaying a crisis far more grave than a simple recession (i.e., a meltdown of the money markets).