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Yeah, the dollar really is hitting record lows, sort of

I always get a little irked when I read an article stating that the dollar has hit a "record low" against the euro. The euro's been around for less than a decade, and happened to come into existence at a time when the dollar was extremely strong. Record lows against it are meaningless.

Of far more interest is the value of the dollar against the currencies of our main trading partners. So I checked out the Federal Reserve's trade-weighted index of the dollar vs. the other major, freely traded currencies, which goes back to 1973, and found that, indeed, the dollar is the lowest it's been since the creation of that measure. Things are different when you look at the "broad" trade-weighted index, which just goes back to 1995 and mixes the major currencies with the likes of the Chinese remninbi, the Mexican peso, and the Indian rupee. The dollar's still well above its mid-1990s lows there. All of which means ... I dunno. I just think it's a nice excuse for yet another chart:
dollar.gif

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  • 1

    thanx for doing a chart that uses data line colors that aren't designed to give people headaches.

    But speaking of the declining dollar... I know the story is two weeks old, but maybe the decline of the dollar might have something to do with that whole "Iran demanding payment for oil from Japan in Yen" thingie.

    For instance, maybe you could do a followup, and tell us if Japan is actually complying with Iran's demands....

  • 2

    dplong term records dont mean much unless you account for relative inflation. The 5 year trends for dollar are down by any measure, but moderate. Declining dollar will be a problem mainly for other countries-meaning harder to sell to us-- unless US Asset markets act up.

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