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Are there really enough rural Americans left to pay attention to?

The latest guest blogger over on Swampland, Democratic political consultant Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, has been stirring things up bigtime with his condemnation of the "Metropolitan Opera Wing" of the Democratic Party. I initially thought this was because his loyalties lay with the party's notoriously combative Lyric Opera of Chicago Wing. But no, it turns out that Saunders meant it as more of an urban-rural thing. (I used to know a farmer in Tulare, Calif., who loved to blast Wagner's operas on his tractor's sweet stereo system. But whatever.)

Anyway, all Mudcat's talk about rural voters got me wondering: How many rural Americans are there left, anyway? I'll admit that I don't entirely get how the Census Bureau divides between urban and rural. Some places that don't entirely fit the conventional definition of urban America (like, say, Tulare, Calif.) do fit the Census Bureau's definition. But according to the Census folks, just 21% of the U.S. population was still rural in 2000, and the trend is decidedly downward. Here's the chart, going back to 1790 (there was some kind of big change in 1950 in how urban and rural were classified, but I don't think it affects the overall result much):
rural_america.gif

I could only find four states where rural residents are in the majority: Vermont, Maine, West Virginia and Mississippi. The latter two look to be on the verge of flipping to majority urban, which would leave a couple of New England states where I don't think Mudcat gets a whole lotta work as the last great bulwarks of rural America. The world as a whole, by the way, just flipped from majority rural to majority urban on May 23.

None of this means that rural Americans are lesser beings who deserve to be ignored by Democrats or Republicans or even business/economics bloggers. But their relative importance, both economically and politically, is shrinking every year. (The decline was actually almost halted for a while in the 1970s and 1980s, but appears to have gotten back on track since.) The whole bass-fishing-and-pickup-trucks political ethos may survive for decades or even centuries more on pure nostalgic affectation. But the United States is now a decidedly urban (well, really it's suburban) nation.

Update: Thanks to a Swampland link (and a video explanation of the headline on that link) from Ana, Mudcat has taken notice:

There are now 56 million geographically-rural Americans. There are also millions of displaced rural-thinking Americans living in urban and suburban areas. Justin Fox is absolutely correct in saying that rural America's influence is shrinking “economically and politically”. And as Democrats, we need to be shouting his words of truth to rural Americans. Examples of truth? The truth is we are shrinking economically because there is government policy in place that rewards the big, greedy corporations that send our jobs overseas. The truth is that the greedy who exploit us and the Republicans are in lock-step. On healthcare, why have the Republicans allowed 400 hospitals to close in rural America since Reagan? And then ask the big question, “What have the Republicans done to improve your quality of life?” I know of no real answers to that question.

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  • 1

    As a resident of the one of the aforementioned rural states, Maine, let me say that the state tends to be moderate, more liberal in the southern more populated areas, more conservative in the northern rural areas.

    Southern Maine has had to absorb a population of Somalian and Ethopean refugees over the last ten years. Portland has the most ethincally diverse high schools north of New York city.

    There is a comprehensive health care program for uninsured called Dirigo. Public spaces are smoke free, strong environmental laws, and anti-discrimination laws for gays.

    While it has two women GOP senators, Susan Collins will face a real challenge in '08 from Tom Allen first district congressman.

    She and her colleague Olympia Snow were two of the GOP senator who voted to end the GOP filibuster aka procedural vote.

    They see the handwriting on the wall.

    Maine went for Clinton, Gore, and Kerry.

  • 2

    Nice work, Mr. Fox. (And don't those Lyric Opera bastards drag you down...)

  • 3

    Justin....

    you have to remember that "rural" is code for "Bubba" --- the stereotypical WHITE male southerner who despises the "liberal elites", who has a "black friend" or two, and is especially vulnerable to the GOP's "coded" messages promoting bigotry and hatred.

    When Mudcat talks about how "democrats need to focus on rural voters", he's certainly not talking about the very large number of rural blacks who live in poverty and consistently vote Democratic. He's talking about "my kind" and "our culture" i.e. the Celebration of the Confederacy and all it stands for (except that they realize that slavery was wrong, but only sort of, because the "culture" they want to celebrate was built on the backs of slave labor.)

  • 4

    I think the issue of whose Urban vs Rural is less important that the issue of who has experienced actual exposure to people who are unlike them. While city dwellers encounter people of differing religion and/or race or ethniciity routinely, people who live in small towns have less such exposure but unfortunately so do people who live in the vast suburban enclaves that surround our major cities.

    The cultural inexperience we're associating with the "rural" mindset is far more widespread than the actual membership in the rural demographic.

  • 5

    Many years ago the New Yorker magazine published a map of the world on its cover. It clearly showed what was urban and what was rural. Urban started around the East River and ran to the Hudson River, west of that, except for a few scattered towns like Chicago and San Francisco and Tokyo, was rural.
    I think that is still true for many folks.

  • 6

    I am frankly surprised that this doesn't get more coverage. Increased urban populations, and nearly universal winner take all electoral vote systems, means a party can win a state simply by focusing on said state's metropolis. And since the issues facing a metropolis are largely those facing all the other metropolises, the politician's job is arguably easier, as instead of focusing on transparently bogus policies that will be ignored once said primary is over (e.g. corn ethanol), they will instead focus on issues that are of interest to the majority of the country's population (e.g. health care). The predictable changes in campaigning (national ads, visits only to metropolises) also follow.

    Not that this is necessarily any more representative of the "will of the people" than the old system; see scenarios where candidates can win the presidency simply by winning the 11 highest electoral vote states, by concentrating on their metropolises - they can win the country with only ~35% of the popular vote.

    Heck, one could say that total rural unimportance is nearly the case already; look up a electoral result by county map of the last two presidential elections, and then realize that the Democrats essentially tied both elections despite taking a far smaller percentage of square area.

    P.S. Note that, given their recent policy positions, this would indicate that the Democrats will have significant, bordering on overwhelming, advantages in the future (this is ignoring the current cyclical switch to the Democrats). However, the above numbers work the same regardless of any party's current positions.

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