The "final frenzy" of the China stock market boom
From the always excellent Bill Powell in Shanghai:
About 18 months ago, Liu Junling, an upwardly mobile single Chinese woman, had a conversation with her boss, the CEO of a large, politically connected real estate developer in Shanghai. For the previous five years, people in China's largest city had lived and breathed the property market—buying apartments, if they could afford to, flipping them for higher prices, and buying again. The government really wanted to cool off the speculation, the boss told her. Probably not a good time to buy. Then, almost as an afterthought, he added: It might be a good time to buy stocks instead. Liu balked. "I don't really understand the stock market,'' says the 35-year-old, "why it goes up or down." Now she is kicking herself. "I can't believe I was so dumb," she says, "but I think it's too late to get in now, isn't it?"
Liu's question—is there a bubble in China stocks?—is of global concern because of the knock-on effect a meltdown could have on markets worldwide. After soaring 130% last year, the Shanghai Composite Index suddenly buckled on Feb. 27, plunging 8.8% and giving investors in the rest of the world a sudden case of the Chinese flu. Since then, however, China stocks have resumed their near-vertical ascent, in recent weeks setting record highs almost daily. By some estimates, there is now more money in the Shanghai stock market than there is in bank savings accounts nationwide—this in a country where the per capita income last year was about $1,750. Yet the mania only seems to grow. On May 9, the total turnover on Chinese bourses exceeded that of all other Asian stock exchanges combined, a first. There are even reports of retail investors borrowing against newly purchased apartments or houses—shades of Japan in the late 1980s—to buy stocks. "I'm afraid this thing is in its final frenzy," says Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai. "People are going to get hurt." Read more.
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1
I have a problem with this...
"By some estimates, there is now more money in the Shanghai stock market than there is in bank savings accounts nationwide".If everyone drew 10% of their bank accounts out for 10 straight day, they would have 100% of the money that was in their bank accounts.
If everyone sold 10% of their stocks for cash everyday for the next 10 days, they'd wind up with a whole lot less money than what their stock portfolio says it is worth today, because prices would collapse.
Economics writers need to stop pretending that stock prices represent real money -- they don't. The only represent what the last person who bought the stock was willing to pay for a stock -- and the likelihood of there being a market for all of the outstanding stocks at that price is not that big.
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2
Yeah, but bank accounts don't represent real money either. Realer than stock market prices, sure, but if everybody tried to withdraw 10% of their bank accounts for 10 straight days, you'd have bank runs and panics on about day 2 or 3.
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3
Everything that goes up must come down! All economies that experience a boom will also experience a bust. It is a great tragedy that common people with low incomes and often paltry life-savings enter a stock boom at its peak only to see all they own vanish in the fall. It has happened time and again in developing countries. India experienced one such fall in 1993 when a few individuals manipulated the stock market to their advantage. After the bust, institutional reform lead to much more mature and stable markets.
The Chinese stock market is younger, lacks collective wisdom, and is surely going to be a heartbreak for millions.
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4
All economies that experience a boom will also experience a bust, sooner or later. It is a great tragedy that common people with low incomes and often paltry life-savings, enter a stock boom at its peak, only to see all that they own vanish in the grand bust. It has happened time and again in developing countries. India experienced one such fall in 1993 when a few individuals manipulated the stock market to their advantage. After the bust, institutional reform lead to much more mature and stable markets. Yet, things are not perfect. Stock markets are not perfect.
The Chinese stock market is a lot younger, lacks collective wisdom, is in exuberance that is unwarranted, and it is surely going to be a heartbreak for millions.
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5
"Yeah, but bank accounts don't represent real money either. Realer than stock market prices, sure, but if everybody tried to withdraw 10% of their bank accounts for 10 straight days, you'd have bank runs and panics on about day 2 or 3."
That is not merely true, but so obviously true that I am embarrassed.
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6
I'm from China, I do feel that people are lost their mind on stork market in recent days, a lot of my friends and relatives put their money into the stork market to earn 'easy money'. but what if the bubble breaks, most of them will be hurt, some may be bankrupted,
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7
I don't think the stock market will influence ordinary people's life much,because few of them will draw all of their money form bank to the stock market,they just use part of their savings in case the stock goes down.Besides average citizens do not usually take part in the stock exchanges.
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8
I don't think the stock market will influence ordinary people's life much,because few of them will draw all of their money form bank to the stock market,they just use part of their savings in case the stock goes down.Besides average citizens do not usually take part in the stock exchanges.
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9
My family has just decided that we are not going to China next year for the Olympics. We were all very excited to go, but recent Chinese incidents have motivated us to cancel our plans. It was a hard decision, but the real Olympic spirit will not be there. Why support a country that violates every basic human freedom of it's own citizens. We can not support a country that hypocritically violates every basic Olympic value and principle. Intentionally polluting our environment, poisoning the world's food, selling prisoner body parts for profit, deliberately selling military arms to Sudan to kill refugees in Dakur and threatening the peace loving peoples of Taiwan with nuclear missiles is too much for my family to support. I will do everything I can to persuade others from not attending. I will also write to my local newspapers and our Congressional leaders to motivate them to cancel funding for an American team to attend. Just like we successfully did when the Russian Olympics were boycotted in 1980 then all freedom loving people of the world must do the same with the Chinese Olympics of 2008.
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10
My family has just decided that we are not going to China next year for the Olympics. We were all very excited to go, but recent Chinese incidents have motivated us to cancel our plans. It was a hard decision, but the real Olympic spirit will not be there. Why support a country that violates every basic human freedom of it's own citizens. We can not support a country that hypocritically violates every basic Olympic value and principle. Intentionally polluting our environment, poisoning the world's food, selling prisoner body parts for profit, deliberately selling military arms to Sudan to kill refugees in Dakur and threatening the peace loving peoples of Taiwan with nuclear missiles is too much for my family to support. I will do everything I can to persuade others from not attending. I will also write to my local newspapers and our Congressional leaders to motivate them to cancel funding for an American team to attend. Just like we successfully did when the Russian Olympics were boycotted in 1980 then all freedom loving people of the world must do the same with the Chinese Olympics of 2008.
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11
the fact is Taiwan is merely a province...this is a political issue...i don't think it's wise to mix olympic and politics
anyway...Beijing WELCOMES YOU!
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