Oh no! The mortgage market is almost as troubled as way back in ... 2002
There were a lot of headlines today about the bad news in the Mortgage Bankers Association's quarterly delinquency survey. Fair enough--mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are up, and the percentage of loans entering the foreclosure process in the fourth quarter of 2006 (0.54%) was the highest on record.
But still, the overall percentage of mortgages that were delinquent in the fourth quarter was 4.95%. It was 4.97% in the second quarter of 2003, and above 5% for most of 2002. And 1.19% of mortgages were in foreclosure, compared with 1.51% in the first quarter of 2002. Even in the subprime market, delinquencies (13.33%) and foreclosures (4.53%) are below their 2002 levels.
Now it could be we're just getting started here, and those data are more than two months old. But Countrywide Financial, one of the biggest mortgage lenders, reported yesterday that its delinquencies were, at 4.71% in February, unchanged from January and down from December.
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Is it your job to retype company press releases? Mr. Mozilo didn't mention that he's dumped about five million dollars of his Countrywide stock in the past week.
I think that almost everyone knows that the sub-prime mortgage market is in real trouble, with around 30 lenders either bankrupt or headed in that direction. The story of the sub-prime mortgage market needs to be told with more current data. Your rosy, dismissive view isn't that informative.
Here's a guy with a little more realistic view:
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2007/03/country-wide-ceo-mortgages-are-in.html -
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